Anthropic holds a commanding lead in the market at 69.5% implied probability due to its Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 models consistently topping 2026 LLM leaderboards on intelligence indices, GPQA, and SWE-bench coding benchmarks. These releases have demonstrated superior reasoning depth, context handling, and reliability compared to competitors. xAI's Grok series sits at 12% amid strong real-time capabilities but trails in enterprise-focused evaluations, while Google's Gemini 3 variants (7.5%) and OpenAI's GPT-5 family (6.5%) remain competitive yet lag in recent head-to-head results. Traders appear focused on Anthropic's sustained benchmark edge and safety-aligned development through the remainder of the year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 70%
xAI 12.0%
Google 8%
OpenAI 7%
$782,148 Vol.
$782,148 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Anthropic
70%
xAI
12%
8%
OpenAI
7%
Meta
3%
Moonshot
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 70%
xAI 12.0%
Google 8%
OpenAI 7%
$782,148 Vol.
$782,148 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Anthropic
$82,513 Vol.
70%
xAI
$66,062 Vol.
12%
$39,908 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$61,850 Vol.
7%
Meta
$51,148 Vol.
3%
Moonshot
$64,729 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$56,316 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$46,340 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$53,124 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$58,052 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$36,663 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$46,741 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$41,154 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$37,824 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$39,723 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding lead in the market at 69.5% implied probability due to its Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 models consistently topping 2026 LLM leaderboards on intelligence indices, GPQA, and SWE-bench coding benchmarks. These releases have demonstrated superior reasoning depth, context handling, and reliability compared to competitors. xAI's Grok series sits at 12% amid strong real-time capabilities but trails in enterprise-focused evaluations, while Google's Gemini 3 variants (7.5%) and OpenAI's GPT-5 family (6.5%) remain competitive yet lag in recent head-to-head results. Traders appear focused on Anthropic's sustained benchmark edge and safety-aligned development through the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Market Opened: Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Volume
$782,148End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding lead in the market at 69.5% implied probability due to its Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 models consistently topping 2026 LLM leaderboards on intelligence indices, GPQA, and SWE-bench coding benchmarks. These releases have demonstrated superior reasoning depth, context handling, and reliability compared to competitors. xAI's Grok series sits at 12% amid strong real-time capabilities but trails in enterprise-focused evaluations, while Google's Gemini 3 variants (7.5%) and OpenAI's GPT-5 family (6.5%) remain competitive yet lag in recent head-to-head results. Traders appear focused on Anthropic's sustained benchmark edge and safety-aligned development through the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$782,148End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 4, 2026, 1:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a commanding lead in the market at 69.5% implied probability due to its Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5 models consistently topping 2026 LLM leaderboards on intelligence indices, GPQA, and SWE-bench coding benchmarks. These releases have demonstrated superior reasoning depth, context handling, and reliability compared to competitors. xAI's Grok series sits at 12% amid strong real-time capabilities but trails in enterprise-focused evaluations, while Google's Gemini 3 variants (7.5%) and OpenAI's GPT-5 family (6.5%) remain competitive yet lag in recent head-to-head results. Traders appear focused on Anthropic's sustained benchmark edge and safety-aligned development through the remainder of the year.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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