Moonshot AI holds the highest specific implied probability at 44.5% among named contenders for second-best Chinese AI company by end-September, reflecting strong trader consensus around its July Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE large language model with 1M-token context that delivered frontier-level results on coding and agentic benchmarks like SWE-Bench and Terminal-Bench. Z.ai follows at 31% on the back of its mid-August GLM-5.3 update, which emphasized real-world agentic coding and cybersecurity parity with leading U.S. systems, plus its established public-market position and ARR momentum. The tight spread across Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 series, DeepSeek’s cost-efficient open-weight V4 family, and others stems from rapid model cadence, benchmark volatility, and shifting developer adoption in a landscape where open releases, domestic hardware compatibility, and enterprise API traction can quickly alter relative positioning ahead of the September cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMoonshot 45%
Z.ai 30%
Tencent 14.0%
Alibaba 6.2%
$65,197 Vol.
$65,197 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
45%
Z.ai
30%
Tencent
14%
Alibaba
6%
Baidu
1%
ByteDance
1%
Xiaomi
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Moonshot 45%
Z.ai 30%
Tencent 14.0%
Alibaba 6.2%
$65,197 Vol.
$65,197 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Moonshot
$22,698 Vol.
45%
Z.ai
$10,391 Vol.
30%
Tencent
$4,991 Vol.
14%
Alibaba
$5,513 Vol.
6%
Baidu
$3,686 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$3,405 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$4,434 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$3,926 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$3,524 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,094 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,537 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI holds the highest specific implied probability at 44.5% among named contenders for second-best Chinese AI company by end-September, reflecting strong trader consensus around its July Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE large language model with 1M-token context that delivered frontier-level results on coding and agentic benchmarks like SWE-Bench and Terminal-Bench. Z.ai follows at 31% on the back of its mid-August GLM-5.3 update, which emphasized real-world agentic coding and cybersecurity parity with leading U.S. systems, plus its established public-market position and ARR momentum. The tight spread across Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 series, DeepSeek’s cost-efficient open-weight V4 family, and others stems from rapid model cadence, benchmark volatility, and shifting developer adoption in a landscape where open releases, domestic hardware compatibility, and enterprise API traction can quickly alter relative positioning ahead of the September cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$65,197End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Moonshot AI holds the highest specific implied probability at 44.5% among named contenders for second-best Chinese AI company by end-September, reflecting strong trader consensus around its July Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE large language model with 1M-token context that delivered frontier-level results on coding and agentic benchmarks like SWE-Bench and Terminal-Bench. Z.ai follows at 31% on the back of its mid-August GLM-5.3 update, which emphasized real-world agentic coding and cybersecurity parity with leading U.S. systems, plus its established public-market position and ARR momentum. The tight spread across Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 series, DeepSeek’s cost-efficient open-weight V4 family, and others stems from rapid model cadence, benchmark volatility, and shifting developer adoption in a landscape where open releases, domestic hardware compatibility, and enterprise API traction can quickly alter relative positioning ahead of the September cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$65,197End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Moonshot AI holds the highest specific implied probability at 44.5% among named contenders for second-best Chinese AI company by end-September, reflecting strong trader consensus around its July Kimi K3 release—a 2.8-trillion-parameter MoE large language model with 1M-token context that delivered frontier-level results on coding and agentic benchmarks like SWE-Bench and Terminal-Bench. Z.ai follows at 31% on the back of its mid-August GLM-5.3 update, which emphasized real-world agentic coding and cybersecurity parity with leading U.S. systems, plus its established public-market position and ARR momentum. The tight spread across Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 series, DeepSeek’s cost-efficient open-weight V4 family, and others stems from rapid model cadence, benchmark volatility, and shifting developer adoption in a landscape where open releases, domestic hardware compatibility, and enterprise API traction can quickly alter relative positioning ahead of the September cutoff.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions