Traders assign Anthropic a 98.3% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of August, reflecting its recent Claude model release that leads major benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and safety metrics. Strong enterprise adoption, consistent capability gains over prior versions, and a competitive edge versus OpenAI, Google, and others underpin the consensus, with real capital backing the assessment amid a narrow evaluation window. A late benchmark update, undisclosed competitor advance, or revised evaluation criteria could still shift outcomes before resolution, though the current lead appears durable given limited time remaining.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 98.4%
OpenAI 1.6%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$2,571,845 Vol.
$2,571,845 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
Anthropic
98%
OpenAI
2%
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 98.4%
OpenAI 1.6%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$2,571,845 Vol.
$2,571,845 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
Anthropic
$476,833 Vol.
98%
OpenAI
$206,970 Vol.
2%
$212,832 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$185,268 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$161,572 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$119,760 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$35,032 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$236,204 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$48,963 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$215,476 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$292,240 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$19,778 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$156,168 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$12,465 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$24,084 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$38,168 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$25,351 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$23,803 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$14,363 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$24,993 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$41,524 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Anthropic a 98.3% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of August, reflecting its recent Claude model release that leads major benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and safety metrics. Strong enterprise adoption, consistent capability gains over prior versions, and a competitive edge versus OpenAI, Google, and others underpin the consensus, with real capital backing the assessment amid a narrow evaluation window. A late benchmark update, undisclosed competitor advance, or revised evaluation criteria could still shift outcomes before resolution, though the current lead appears durable given limited time remaining.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$2,571,845End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Anthropic a 98.3% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of August, reflecting its recent Claude model release that leads major benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and safety metrics. Strong enterprise adoption, consistent capability gains over prior versions, and a competitive edge versus OpenAI, Google, and others underpin the consensus, with real capital backing the assessment amid a narrow evaluation window. A late benchmark update, undisclosed competitor advance, or revised evaluation criteria could still shift outcomes before resolution, though the current lead appears durable given limited time remaining.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$2,571,845End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Anthropic a 98.3% implied probability of fielding the best AI model by end of August, reflecting its recent Claude model release that leads major benchmarks in reasoning, coding, and safety metrics. Strong enterprise adoption, consistent capability gains over prior versions, and a competitive edge versus OpenAI, Google, and others underpin the consensus, with real capital backing the assessment amid a narrow evaluation window. A late benchmark update, undisclosed competitor advance, or revised evaluation criteria could still shift outcomes before resolution, though the current lead appears durable given limited time remaining.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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