Anthropic’s dominant position in recent AI benchmarks drives the market’s heavy 85.5% implied probability for the company holding the best model by end of October. Its Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 releases from June–July 2026 lead composite leaderboards on reasoning, coding, and human preference metrics such as SWE-bench and Arena Elo, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s rapid iteration cadence and consistent frontier performance as likely to persist through the next two months, while lower odds on competitors reflect the absence of comparable capability jumps or confirmed releases that could close the gap before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 86%
OpenAI 5.8%
Google 4.2%
SpaceXAI 2.5%
$43,718 Vol.
$43,718 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
86%
OpenAI
6%
4%
SpaceXAI
2%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 86%
OpenAI 5.8%
Google 4.2%
SpaceXAI 2.5%
$43,718 Vol.
$43,718 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$9,664 Vol.
86%
OpenAI
$1,972 Vol.
6%
$1,980 Vol.
4%
SpaceXAI
$2,609 Vol.
2%
Meta
$2,037 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$4,275 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$1,610 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$1,511 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,560 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$1,437 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,504 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,461 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$2,016 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,978 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,429 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$925 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,219 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$907 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$498 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s dominant position in recent AI benchmarks drives the market’s heavy 85.5% implied probability for the company holding the best model by end of October. Its Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 releases from June–July 2026 lead composite leaderboards on reasoning, coding, and human preference metrics such as SWE-bench and Arena Elo, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s rapid iteration cadence and consistent frontier performance as likely to persist through the next two months, while lower odds on competitors reflect the absence of comparable capability jumps or confirmed releases that could close the gap before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
Volume
$43,718End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s dominant position in recent AI benchmarks drives the market’s heavy 85.5% implied probability for the company holding the best model by end of October. Its Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 releases from June–July 2026 lead composite leaderboards on reasoning, coding, and human preference metrics such as SWE-bench and Arena Elo, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s rapid iteration cadence and consistent frontier performance as likely to persist through the next two months, while lower odds on competitors reflect the absence of comparable capability jumps or confirmed releases that could close the gap before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$43,718End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s dominant position in recent AI benchmarks drives the market’s heavy 85.5% implied probability for the company holding the best model by end of October. Its Claude Fable 5, Mythos 5, and Opus 5 releases from June–July 2026 lead composite leaderboards on reasoning, coding, and human preference metrics such as SWE-bench and Arena Elo, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 series and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. Traders appear to view Anthropic’s rapid iteration cadence and consistent frontier performance as likely to persist through the next two months, while lower odds on competitors reflect the absence of comparable capability jumps or confirmed releases that could close the gap before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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