Anthropic's Claude models, including variants like Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.6/5 series, currently dominate the Text Arena math category with Elo scores exceeding 1520–1540, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.x entries and Google's Gemini releases that trail by 20–50 points. This leaderboard positioning, driven by consistent performance on complex reasoning tasks and recent capability demonstrations such as advanced mathematical proofs, underpins the 82.5% implied probability. Traders view Anthropic's edge in demonstrated math benchmarks as durable through October, though new model drops from competitors or leaderboard volatility could shift sentiment. OpenAI and Google sit at 10.5% and 4.5% respectively due to comparatively weaker math-specific results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 83%
OpenAI 9%
Google 4.7%
Alibaba 1.6%
$15,085 Vol.
$15,085 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
83%
OpenAI
9%
5%
Alibaba
2%
Moonshot
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Tencent
1%
Meituan
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Z.ai
1%
Amazon
1%
MiniMax
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta
<1%
StepFun
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Anthropic 83%
OpenAI 9%
Google 4.7%
Alibaba 1.6%
$15,085 Vol.
$15,085 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$6,081 Vol.
83%
OpenAI
$2,669 Vol.
9%
$370 Vol.
5%
Alibaba
$333 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$337 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$325 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$392 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$359 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$411 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$344 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$389 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$338 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$326 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$301 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$326 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$356 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$426 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$361 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$319 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$322 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude models, including variants like Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.6/5 series, currently dominate the Text Arena math category with Elo scores exceeding 1520–1540, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.x entries and Google's Gemini releases that trail by 20–50 points. This leaderboard positioning, driven by consistent performance on complex reasoning tasks and recent capability demonstrations such as advanced mathematical proofs, underpins the 82.5% implied probability. Traders view Anthropic's edge in demonstrated math benchmarks as durable through October, though new model drops from competitors or leaderboard volatility could shift sentiment. OpenAI and Google sit at 10.5% and 4.5% respectively due to comparatively weaker math-specific results.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volume
$15,085End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's Claude models, including variants like Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.6/5 series, currently dominate the Text Arena math category with Elo scores exceeding 1520–1540, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.x entries and Google's Gemini releases that trail by 20–50 points. This leaderboard positioning, driven by consistent performance on complex reasoning tasks and recent capability demonstrations such as advanced mathematical proofs, underpins the 82.5% implied probability. Traders view Anthropic's edge in demonstrated math benchmarks as durable through October, though new model drops from competitors or leaderboard volatility could shift sentiment. OpenAI and Google sit at 10.5% and 4.5% respectively due to comparatively weaker math-specific results.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$15,085End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude models, including variants like Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4.6/5 series, currently dominate the Text Arena math category with Elo scores exceeding 1520–1540, outpacing OpenAI's GPT-5.x entries and Google's Gemini releases that trail by 20–50 points. This leaderboard positioning, driven by consistent performance on complex reasoning tasks and recent capability demonstrations such as advanced mathematical proofs, underpins the 82.5% implied probability. Traders view Anthropic's edge in demonstrated math benchmarks as durable through October, though new model drops from competitors or leaderboard volatility could shift sentiment. OpenAI and Google sit at 10.5% and 4.5% respectively due to comparatively weaker math-specific results.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions