Recent model releases and benchmark performance shape trader views on the second-best AI agent lab by late October, with OpenAI and Moonshot AI holding the highest implied probabilities near 40% and 37%. Moonshot’s July 2026 Kimi K3 release delivered strong results on long-horizon coding and multimodal agent tasks, narrowing gaps with proprietary leaders while attracting enterprise interest ahead of its planned IPO. OpenAI advances general-purpose agents via ChatGPT Work and GPT-5 variants despite a temporary safety-related training pause. Anthropic maintains an edge in tool-use ecosystems like Claude Code, yet trails in current odds. Close contesting among labs reflects rapid iteration in agent frameworks, developer adoption, and evolving benchmarks, where any new capability demonstration or regulatory shift could reorder positions before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 57%
Moonshot 35%
Anthropic 9%
SpaceXAI 1.8%
$24,380 Vol.
$24,380 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
57%
Moonshot
35%
Anthropic
9%
SpaceXAI
2%
2%
DeepSeek
1%
Amazon
1%
ByteDance
1%
Z.ai
1%
Meta
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI 57%
Moonshot 35%
Anthropic 9%
SpaceXAI 1.8%
$24,380 Vol.
$24,380 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
$8,458 Vol.
57%
Moonshot
$6,032 Vol.
35%
Anthropic
$1,803 Vol.
9%
SpaceXAI
$565 Vol.
2%
$1,462 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$521 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$534 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$488 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$489 Vol.
1%
Meta
$423 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$444 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$420 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$390 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$503 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$460 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$526 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$461 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$400 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases and benchmark performance shape trader views on the second-best AI agent lab by late October, with OpenAI and Moonshot AI holding the highest implied probabilities near 40% and 37%. Moonshot’s July 2026 Kimi K3 release delivered strong results on long-horizon coding and multimodal agent tasks, narrowing gaps with proprietary leaders while attracting enterprise interest ahead of its planned IPO. OpenAI advances general-purpose agents via ChatGPT Work and GPT-5 variants despite a temporary safety-related training pause. Anthropic maintains an edge in tool-use ecosystems like Claude Code, yet trails in current odds. Close contesting among labs reflects rapid iteration in agent frameworks, developer adoption, and evolving benchmarks, where any new capability demonstration or regulatory shift could reorder positions before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
Volume
$24,380End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases and benchmark performance shape trader views on the second-best AI agent lab by late October, with OpenAI and Moonshot AI holding the highest implied probabilities near 40% and 37%. Moonshot’s July 2026 Kimi K3 release delivered strong results on long-horizon coding and multimodal agent tasks, narrowing gaps with proprietary leaders while attracting enterprise interest ahead of its planned IPO. OpenAI advances general-purpose agents via ChatGPT Work and GPT-5 variants despite a temporary safety-related training pause. Anthropic maintains an edge in tool-use ecosystems like Claude Code, yet trails in current odds. Close contesting among labs reflects rapid iteration in agent frameworks, developer adoption, and evolving benchmarks, where any new capability demonstration or regulatory shift could reorder positions before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$24,380End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases and benchmark performance shape trader views on the second-best AI agent lab by late October, with OpenAI and Moonshot AI holding the highest implied probabilities near 40% and 37%. Moonshot’s July 2026 Kimi K3 release delivered strong results on long-horizon coding and multimodal agent tasks, narrowing gaps with proprietary leaders while attracting enterprise interest ahead of its planned IPO. OpenAI advances general-purpose agents via ChatGPT Work and GPT-5 variants despite a temporary safety-related training pause. Anthropic maintains an edge in tool-use ecosystems like Claude Code, yet trails in current odds. Close contesting among labs reflects rapid iteration in agent frameworks, developer adoption, and evolving benchmarks, where any new capability demonstration or regulatory shift could reorder positions before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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