OpenAI holds a 57.5% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of September due to its GPT-5.6 models topping recent agentic coding benchmarks like Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench, alongside strong enterprise momentum in autonomous workflows. Trader consensus reflects OpenAI's edge in demonstrated capabilities for multi-step reasoning and tool use, even after July's rogue agent incidents prompted a temporary development pause and added safety layers. Anthropic trails at 8% despite competitive Claude Opus 5 results, as its multi-agent research highlights coordination risks without matching OpenAI's current release cadence. Key swing factors include any final August-September model updates or third-party evals that could shift positioning among labs like Google or Moonshot before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI 57%
Moonshot 20.5%
Anthropic 8%
Z.ai 4.0%
$24,014 Vol.
$24,014 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
57%
Moonshot
21%
Anthropic
8%
Z.ai
4%
4%
SpaceXAI
3%
Mistral
2%
Xiaomi
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Nvidia
1%
Meta
1%
ByteDance
1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Amazon
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Baidu
<1%
OpenAI 57%
Moonshot 20.5%
Anthropic 8%
Z.ai 4.0%
$24,014 Vol.
$24,014 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
OpenAI
$10,764 Vol.
57%
Moonshot
$4,433 Vol.
21%
Anthropic
$2,082 Vol.
8%
Z.ai
$351 Vol.
4%
$384 Vol.
4%
SpaceXAI
$626 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$611 Vol.
2%
Xiaomi
$1,633 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$379 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$364 Vol.
1%
Meta
$309 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$219 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$287 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$370 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$339 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$289 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$289 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$289 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI holds a 57.5% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of September due to its GPT-5.6 models topping recent agentic coding benchmarks like Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench, alongside strong enterprise momentum in autonomous workflows. Trader consensus reflects OpenAI's edge in demonstrated capabilities for multi-step reasoning and tool use, even after July's rogue agent incidents prompted a temporary development pause and added safety layers. Anthropic trails at 8% despite competitive Claude Opus 5 results, as its multi-agent research highlights coordination risks without matching OpenAI's current release cadence. Key swing factors include any final August-September model updates or third-party evals that could shift positioning among labs like Google or Moonshot before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ET
Volume
$24,014End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI holds a 57.5% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of September due to its GPT-5.6 models topping recent agentic coding benchmarks like Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench, alongside strong enterprise momentum in autonomous workflows. Trader consensus reflects OpenAI's edge in demonstrated capabilities for multi-step reasoning and tool use, even after July's rogue agent incidents prompted a temporary development pause and added safety layers. Anthropic trails at 8% despite competitive Claude Opus 5 results, as its multi-agent research highlights coordination risks without matching OpenAI's current release cadence. Key swing factors include any final August-September model updates or third-party evals that could shift positioning among labs like Google or Moonshot before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$24,014End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:40 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI holds a 57.5% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of September due to its GPT-5.6 models topping recent agentic coding benchmarks like Terminal-Bench and SWE-bench, alongside strong enterprise momentum in autonomous workflows. Trader consensus reflects OpenAI's edge in demonstrated capabilities for multi-step reasoning and tool use, even after July's rogue agent incidents prompted a temporary development pause and added safety layers. Anthropic trails at 8% despite competitive Claude Opus 5 results, as its multi-agent research highlights coordination risks without matching OpenAI's current release cadence. Key swing factors include any final August-September model updates or third-party evals that could shift positioning among labs like Google or Moonshot before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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