Google’s repeated delays of Gemini 3.5 Pro, first targeted for June after its May I/O preview and then pushed into July, form the core driver of market sentiment, with traders assigning roughly even odds of no Pro release by November 1. Persistent shortfalls in coding and long-horizon agentic performance have kept the model in partner testing without a firm public timeline or API identifier, while Google has filled the gap with rapid Flash iterations such as the August 13 general availability of Gemini 3.7 Flash. Executives have confirmed pre-training of a larger Gemini 4 frontier model, raising the possibility of skipping 3.5 Pro, and the official models page still lists the Pro variant as “coming soon.” Upcoming Alphabet earnings commentary and any Made by Google event signals could shift timelines, though historical patterns suggest staged rollouts rather than immediate general availability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$1,127,062 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
6%
September 15
24%
September 30
24%
October 31
60%
$1,127,062 Vol.
August 31
$313,329 Vol.
6%
September 15
$742 Vol.
24%
September 30
$3,233 Vol.
24%
October 31
$866 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays of Gemini 3.5 Pro, first targeted for June after its May I/O preview and then pushed into July, form the core driver of market sentiment, with traders assigning roughly even odds of no Pro release by November 1. Persistent shortfalls in coding and long-horizon agentic performance have kept the model in partner testing without a firm public timeline or API identifier, while Google has filled the gap with rapid Flash iterations such as the August 13 general availability of Gemini 3.7 Flash. Executives have confirmed pre-training of a larger Gemini 4 frontier model, raising the possibility of skipping 3.5 Pro, and the official models page still lists the Pro variant as “coming soon.” Upcoming Alphabet earnings commentary and any Made by Google event signals could shift timelines, though historical patterns suggest staged rollouts rather than immediate general availability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Volume
$1,127,062End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google’s repeated delays of Gemini 3.5 Pro, first targeted for June after its May I/O preview and then pushed into July, form the core driver of market sentiment, with traders assigning roughly even odds of no Pro release by November 1. Persistent shortfalls in coding and long-horizon agentic performance have kept the model in partner testing without a firm public timeline or API identifier, while Google has filled the gap with rapid Flash iterations such as the August 13 general availability of Gemini 3.7 Flash. Executives have confirmed pre-training of a larger Gemini 4 frontier model, raising the possibility of skipping 3.5 Pro, and the official models page still lists the Pro variant as “coming soon.” Upcoming Alphabet earnings commentary and any Made by Google event signals could shift timelines, though historical patterns suggest staged rollouts rather than immediate general availability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,127,062End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Google’s repeated delays of Gemini 3.5 Pro, first targeted for June after its May I/O preview and then pushed into July, form the core driver of market sentiment, with traders assigning roughly even odds of no Pro release by November 1. Persistent shortfalls in coding and long-horizon agentic performance have kept the model in partner testing without a firm public timeline or API identifier, while Google has filled the gap with rapid Flash iterations such as the August 13 general availability of Gemini 3.7 Flash. Executives have confirmed pre-training of a larger Gemini 4 frontier model, raising the possibility of skipping 3.5 Pro, and the official models page still lists the Pro variant as “coming soon.” Upcoming Alphabet earnings commentary and any Made by Google event signals could shift timelines, though historical patterns suggest staged rollouts rather than immediate general availability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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