Anthropic’s Claude lineup, led by Mythos 5, Fable 5, and the July 2026 release of Opus 5, currently tops independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on coding, agentic workflows, and reasoning benchmarks. This sustained edge, reinforced by strong SWE-bench Verified and Pro results plus efficient 1M-context performance at competitive pricing, drives the 85.5% implied probability for Anthropic holding the #1 model through end of October. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol family and Google’s Gemini 3.x variants remain competitive on select metrics but trail overall, while Meta’s Muse Spark and Chinese labs trail further; no verified releases or capability jumps from rivals have narrowed the gap in recent weeks. Traders appear to view near-term competitive shifts as low-probability events before the resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 86%
Meta 4.3%
Google 3.1%
OpenAI 2.7%
$11,731 Vol.
$11,731 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
86%
Meta
4%
3%
OpenAI
3%
Alibaba
2%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
Xiaomi
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
ByteDance
1%
MiniMax
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Anthropic 86%
Meta 4.3%
Google 3.1%
OpenAI 2.7%
$11,731 Vol.
$11,731 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$6,653 Vol.
86%
Meta
$229 Vol.
4%
$209 Vol.
3%
OpenAI
$239 Vol.
3%
Alibaba
$287 Vol.
2%
Moonshot
$319 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$327 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$383 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$235 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$247 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$245 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$209 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$263 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$290 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$247 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$248 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$243 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$119 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$247 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$249 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$243 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude lineup, led by Mythos 5, Fable 5, and the July 2026 release of Opus 5, currently tops independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on coding, agentic workflows, and reasoning benchmarks. This sustained edge, reinforced by strong SWE-bench Verified and Pro results plus efficient 1M-context performance at competitive pricing, drives the 85.5% implied probability for Anthropic holding the #1 model through end of October. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol family and Google’s Gemini 3.x variants remain competitive on select metrics but trail overall, while Meta’s Muse Spark and Chinese labs trail further; no verified releases or capability jumps from rivals have narrowed the gap in recent weeks. Traders appear to view near-term competitive shifts as low-probability events before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$11,731End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s Claude lineup, led by Mythos 5, Fable 5, and the July 2026 release of Opus 5, currently tops independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on coding, agentic workflows, and reasoning benchmarks. This sustained edge, reinforced by strong SWE-bench Verified and Pro results plus efficient 1M-context performance at competitive pricing, drives the 85.5% implied probability for Anthropic holding the #1 model through end of October. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol family and Google’s Gemini 3.x variants remain competitive on select metrics but trail overall, while Meta’s Muse Spark and Chinese labs trail further; no verified releases or capability jumps from rivals have narrowed the gap in recent weeks. Traders appear to view near-term competitive shifts as low-probability events before the resolution date.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$11,731End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude lineup, led by Mythos 5, Fable 5, and the July 2026 release of Opus 5, currently tops independent leaderboards such as BenchAlign and Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index on coding, agentic workflows, and reasoning benchmarks. This sustained edge, reinforced by strong SWE-bench Verified and Pro results plus efficient 1M-context performance at competitive pricing, drives the 85.5% implied probability for Anthropic holding the #1 model through end of October. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol family and Google’s Gemini 3.x variants remain competitive on select metrics but trail overall, while Meta’s Muse Spark and Chinese labs trail further; no verified releases or capability jumps from rivals have narrowed the gap in recent weeks. Traders appear to view near-term competitive shifts as low-probability events before the resolution date.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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