Anthropic’s recent Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 releases have driven the 88.5% market-implied odds, as these large language models currently lead independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 and SWE-bench Pro in coding, agentic tasks, and reasoning. Opus 5, launched July 24 at half the price of Fable 5 while matching or exceeding prior flagships on Frontier-Bench and computer-use evaluations, solidified Anthropic’s position ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol variants and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. With roughly five weeks until end-September resolution and no confirmed frontier releases imminent from competitors, trader consensus reflects sustained Anthropic leadership in demonstrated capabilities. Any late-cycle model update or benchmark shift could alter the tight race among lower-probability contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 89%
Google 5.4%
OpenAI 4.3%
Meta 1.4%
$45,954 Vol.
$45,954 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
89%
5%
OpenAI
4%
Meta
1%
Moonshot
1%
Alibaba
1%
Tencent
1%
Thinky
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 89%
Google 5.4%
OpenAI 4.3%
Meta 1.4%
$45,954 Vol.
$45,954 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$23,079 Vol.
89%
$2,123 Vol.
5%
OpenAI
$1,615 Vol.
4%
Meta
$1,548 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$1,312 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$1,465 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$2,387 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$1,102 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$833 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$1,300 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$1,343 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$736 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$1,149 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$769 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,250 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$945 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$436 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$436 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$930 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$436 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$762 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 releases have driven the 88.5% market-implied odds, as these large language models currently lead independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 and SWE-bench Pro in coding, agentic tasks, and reasoning. Opus 5, launched July 24 at half the price of Fable 5 while matching or exceeding prior flagships on Frontier-Bench and computer-use evaluations, solidified Anthropic’s position ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol variants and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. With roughly five weeks until end-September resolution and no confirmed frontier releases imminent from competitors, trader consensus reflects sustained Anthropic leadership in demonstrated capabilities. Any late-cycle model update or benchmark shift could alter the tight race among lower-probability contenders.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volume
$45,954End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic’s recent Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 releases have driven the 88.5% market-implied odds, as these large language models currently lead independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 and SWE-bench Pro in coding, agentic tasks, and reasoning. Opus 5, launched July 24 at half the price of Fable 5 while matching or exceeding prior flagships on Frontier-Bench and computer-use evaluations, solidified Anthropic’s position ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol variants and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. With roughly five weeks until end-September resolution and no confirmed frontier releases imminent from competitors, trader consensus reflects sustained Anthropic leadership in demonstrated capabilities. Any late-cycle model update or benchmark shift could alter the tight race among lower-probability contenders.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$45,954End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 20, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overallResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s recent Claude Mythos 5, Fable 5, and Opus 5 releases have driven the 88.5% market-implied odds, as these large language models currently lead independent benchmarks such as BenchAlign v5 and SWE-bench Pro in coding, agentic tasks, and reasoning. Opus 5, launched July 24 at half the price of Fable 5 while matching or exceeding prior flagships on Frontier-Bench and computer-use evaluations, solidified Anthropic’s position ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol variants and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro. With roughly five weeks until end-September resolution and no confirmed frontier releases imminent from competitors, trader consensus reflects sustained Anthropic leadership in demonstrated capabilities. Any late-cycle model update or benchmark shift could alter the tight race among lower-probability contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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