**The August 6 GitHub Actions outage, which ran roughly 10 hours 42 minutes from initial impact through resolution, currently stands as the longest critical incident of the month and directly anchors trader pricing.** This event, involving degraded workflow runs, stuck runner pods in the Actions Runner Controller, and throttled services, set a clear benchmark in the 6-12 hour range. The subsequent August 17 platform-wide outage—impacting Git operations, APIs, Pull Requests, Issues, Actions, authentication, and Copilot with error rates reaching 20-50%—lasted approximately 7 hours 47 minutes and reinforced the same bucket without surpassing it. With only one week remaining in August and no reported critical incidents since August 17, market-implied odds heavily favor the 6-12 hour outcome at 89.5%. The low probabilities on 12+ hours (8.0%) reflect the absence of any precedent or signals for a longer disruption, while shorter buckets (<1 hour at 2.8%, 1-3 hours at 1.1%, 3-6 hours at 0.6%) appear unlikely given the two verified extended events. Traders are pricing in stable operations through month-end, with resolution hinging on official GitHub status page durations for any final incidents.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated6-12 hours 90%
12+ hours 7.9%
<1 hour 2.3%
1-3 hours 1.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<1 hour
2%
1-3 hours
1%
3-6 hours
1%
6-12 hours
90%
12+ hours
8%
6-12 hours 90%
12+ hours 7.9%
<1 hour 2.3%
1-3 hours 1.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<1 hour
$1,307 Vol.
2%
1-3 hours
$400 Vol.
1%
3-6 hours
$366 Vol.
1%
6-12 hours
$4,924 Vol.
90%
12+ hours
$1,715 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The August 6 GitHub Actions outage, which ran roughly 10 hours 42 minutes from initial impact through resolution, currently stands as the longest critical incident of the month and directly anchors trader pricing.** This event, involving degraded workflow runs, stuck runner pods in the Actions Runner Controller, and throttled services, set a clear benchmark in the 6-12 hour range. The subsequent August 17 platform-wide outage—impacting Git operations, APIs, Pull Requests, Issues, Actions, authentication, and Copilot with error rates reaching 20-50%—lasted approximately 7 hours 47 minutes and reinforced the same bucket without surpassing it.
With only one week remaining in August and no reported critical incidents since August 17, market-implied odds heavily favor the 6-12 hour outcome at 89.5%. The low probabilities on 12+ hours (8.0%) reflect the absence of any precedent or signals for a longer disruption, while shorter buckets (<1 hour at 2.8%, 1-3 hours at 1.1%, 3-6 hours at 0.6%) appear unlikely given the two verified extended events. Traders are pricing in stable operations through month-end, with resolution hinging on official GitHub status page durations for any final incidents.
This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 8:44 PM ET
Volume
$8,713End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.githubstatus.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The August 6 GitHub Actions outage, which ran roughly 10 hours 42 minutes from initial impact through resolution, currently stands as the longest critical incident of the month and directly anchors trader pricing.** This event, involving degraded workflow runs, stuck runner pods in the Actions Runner Controller, and throttled services, set a clear benchmark in the 6-12 hour range. The subsequent August 17 platform-wide outage—impacting Git operations, APIs, Pull Requests, Issues, Actions, authentication, and Copilot with error rates reaching 20-50%—lasted approximately 7 hours 47 minutes and reinforced the same bucket without surpassing it.
With only one week remaining in August and no reported critical incidents since August 17, market-implied odds heavily favor the 6-12 hour outcome at 89.5%. The low probabilities on 12+ hours (8.0%) reflect the absence of any precedent or signals for a longer disruption, while shorter buckets (<1 hour at 2.8%, 1-3 hours at 1.1%, 3-6 hours at 0.6%) appear unlikely given the two verified extended events. Traders are pricing in stable operations through month-end, with resolution hinging on official GitHub status page durations for any final incidents.
This market will resolve according to the duration of the longest qualifying incident that begins between August 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If no qualifying incident begins during this period, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket (“<1 hour”).
An incident will qualify if the official GitHub Status Page (githubstatus.com) or the official GitHub Status API (githubstatus.com/api) classifies the incident's impact as "critical," unless its affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers. Incidents listing no affected components will qualify. GitHub classifies incident impact as None, Minor, Major, or Critical; only Critical will qualify. Component status labels (e.g. "Degraded Performance," "Partial Outage," or "Major Outage") will have no bearing on this market absent a qualifying critical incident.
Revisions published after an incident is marked “Resolved” will not be considered.
An incident's duration is the time between its official start timestamp and the time the incident is marked “Resolved,” as published by the GitHub Status Page or the GitHub Status API. An incident will be attributed to the month in which it begins, based on its official start timestamp converted to Eastern Time (ET); an incident that begins during the period and is resolved after the period ends will count in full.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If an incident that began during the period remains unresolved at the end of the period, this market will remain open and resolve at the earlier of: (i) when the incident is officially resolved, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) after the end of the period, at which point the market will resolve based on the official information available at that time, with any unresolved incident's duration measured from its official start timestamp to that time.
Incidents whose affected components, once the incident is marked "Resolved," consist solely of Copilot and/or Copilot AI Model Providers will not qualify. Scheduled maintenance will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official GitHub system-status information published at https://www.githubstatus.com/, including the official GitHub Status API (https://www.githubstatus.com/api); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$8,713End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:44 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.githubstatus.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**The August 6 GitHub Actions outage, which ran roughly 10 hours 42 minutes from initial impact through resolution, currently stands as the longest critical incident of the month and directly anchors trader pricing.** This event, involving degraded workflow runs, stuck runner pods in the Actions Runner Controller, and throttled services, set a clear benchmark in the 6-12 hour range. The subsequent August 17 platform-wide outage—impacting Git operations, APIs, Pull Requests, Issues, Actions, authentication, and Copilot with error rates reaching 20-50%—lasted approximately 7 hours 47 minutes and reinforced the same bucket without surpassing it. With only one week remaining in August and no reported critical incidents since August 17, market-implied odds heavily favor the 6-12 hour outcome at 89.5%. The low probabilities on 12+ hours (8.0%) reflect the absence of any precedent or signals for a longer disruption, while shorter buckets (<1 hour at 2.8%, 1-3 hours at 1.1%, 3-6 hours at 0.6%) appear unlikely given the two verified extended events. Traders are pricing in stable operations through month-end, with resolution hinging on official GitHub status page durations for any final incidents.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions