Recent shipments of H200 units to major Chinese buyers like ByteDance and Tencent have eased Western inventory constraints, while Blackwell B200 capacity ramps are diverting frontier training workloads and pressuring Hopper-era pricing. Marketplace and neocloud rates currently cluster in the $3.50–$4.50 range on platforms such as Vast.ai and Jarvis Labs, versus hyperscaler premiums above $7, creating uncertainty around sustained demand for H200’s 141 GB HBM3e memory bandwidth. Traders see the tight spread between the $4.00–$4.50 and $4.50–$5.00 buckets as reflecting these offsetting forces—production growth and competitive substitution versus steady inference and fine-tuning demand—over the next two months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$4.50-$5.00 30%
$4.00-$4.50 26%
$5.50+ 22.9%
$5.00-$5.50 11%
$12,785 Vol.
$12,785 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
<$3.50
9%
$3.50-$4.00
6%
$4.00-$4.50
26%
$4.50-$5.00
30%
$5.00-$5.50
11%
$5.50+
23%
$4.50-$5.00 30%
$4.00-$4.50 26%
$5.50+ 22.9%
$5.00-$5.50 11%
$12,785 Vol.
$12,785 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
<$3.50
$776 Vol.
9%
$3.50-$4.00
$499 Vol.
6%
$4.00-$4.50
$5,042 Vol.
26%
$4.50-$5.00
$4,973 Vol.
30%
$5.00-$5.50
$482 Vol.
11%
$5.50+
$1,012 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn H200 Index price for October 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.Recent shipments of H200 units to major Chinese buyers like ByteDance and Tencent have eased Western inventory constraints, while Blackwell B200 capacity ramps are diverting frontier training workloads and pressuring Hopper-era pricing. Marketplace and neocloud rates currently cluster in the $3.50–$4.50 range on platforms such as Vast.ai and Jarvis Labs, versus hyperscaler premiums above $7, creating uncertainty around sustained demand for H200’s 141 GB HBM3e memory bandwidth. Traders see the tight spread between the $4.00–$4.50 and $4.50–$5.00 buckets as reflecting these offsetting forces—production growth and competitive substitution versus steady inference and fine-tuning demand—over the next two months.
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn H200 Index price for October 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 7:34 PM ET
Volume
$12,785End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 7:34 PM ETResolution Source
https://dashboard.ornnai.com/computeResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn H200 Index price for October 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.Recent shipments of H200 units to major Chinese buyers like ByteDance and Tencent have eased Western inventory constraints, while Blackwell B200 capacity ramps are diverting frontier training workloads and pressuring Hopper-era pricing. Marketplace and neocloud rates currently cluster in the $3.50–$4.50 range on platforms such as Vast.ai and Jarvis Labs, versus hyperscaler premiums above $7, creating uncertainty around sustained demand for H200’s 141 GB HBM3e memory bandwidth. Traders see the tight spread between the $4.00–$4.50 and $4.50–$5.00 buckets as reflecting these offsetting forces—production growth and competitive substitution versus steady inference and fine-tuning demand—over the next two months.
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn H200 Index price for October 31, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
Volume
$12,785End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 7:34 PM ETResolution Source
https://dashboard.ornnai.com/computeResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent shipments of H200 units to major Chinese buyers like ByteDance and Tencent have eased Western inventory constraints, while Blackwell B200 capacity ramps are diverting frontier training workloads and pressuring Hopper-era pricing. Marketplace and neocloud rates currently cluster in the $3.50–$4.50 range on platforms such as Vast.ai and Jarvis Labs, versus hyperscaler premiums above $7, creating uncertainty around sustained demand for H200’s 141 GB HBM3e memory bandwidth. Traders see the tight spread between the $4.00–$4.50 and $4.50–$5.00 buckets as reflecting these offsetting forces—production growth and competitive substitution versus steady inference and fine-tuning demand—over the next two months.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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