Recent H200 shipments to Chinese buyers (roughly 20,000 units to ByteDance and Tencent) and NVIDIA’s prior stockpile of ~500,000 units have loosened near-term Western supply, while the Blackwell ramp and Vera Rubin transition continue shifting demand toward newer silicon. Marketplace and neo-cloud providers currently list on-demand rates from $2.60–$4.50 per GPU-hour, versus hyperscaler premiums above $10, with spot/interruptible tiers adding further variance. These overlapping supply, competitive-tier, and generational-substitution dynamics produce the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities across the $4.00–$5.50 bands through September.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$4.50-$5.00 22%
<$4.00 19%
$4.00-$4.50 18%
$6.00+ 13.6%
$23,392 Vol.
$23,392 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<$4.00
19%
$4.00-$4.50
18%
$4.50-$5.00
22%
$5.00-$5.50
14%
$5.50-$6.00
9%
$6.00+
14%
$4.50-$5.00 22%
<$4.00 19%
$4.00-$4.50 18%
$6.00+ 13.6%
$23,392 Vol.
$23,392 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
<$4.00
$10,113 Vol.
19%
$4.00-$4.50
$2,033 Vol.
18%
$4.50-$5.00
$3,889 Vol.
22%
$5.00-$5.50
$2,623 Vol.
14%
$5.50-$6.00
$2,099 Vol.
9%
$6.00+
$2,634 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn H200 Index price for September 30, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.Recent H200 shipments to Chinese buyers (roughly 20,000 units to ByteDance and Tencent) and NVIDIA’s prior stockpile of ~500,000 units have loosened near-term Western supply, while the Blackwell ramp and Vera Rubin transition continue shifting demand toward newer silicon. Marketplace and neo-cloud providers currently list on-demand rates from $2.60–$4.50 per GPU-hour, versus hyperscaler premiums above $10, with spot/interruptible tiers adding further variance. These overlapping supply, competitive-tier, and generational-substitution dynamics produce the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities across the $4.00–$5.50 bands through September.
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn H200 Index price for September 30, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 11:31 AM ET
Volume
$23,392End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 11:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://dashboard.ornnai.com/computeResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn H200 Index price for September 30, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.Recent H200 shipments to Chinese buyers (roughly 20,000 units to ByteDance and Tencent) and NVIDIA’s prior stockpile of ~500,000 units have loosened near-term Western supply, while the Blackwell ramp and Vera Rubin transition continue shifting demand toward newer silicon. Marketplace and neo-cloud providers currently list on-demand rates from $2.60–$4.50 per GPU-hour, versus hyperscaler premiums above $10, with spot/interruptible tiers adding further variance. These overlapping supply, competitive-tier, and generational-substitution dynamics produce the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities across the $4.00–$5.50 bands through September.
This market will resolve according to the finalized Ornn H200 Index price for September 30, 2026.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market is Ornnai.com (ornnai.com), specifically, the H200 Index chart data available at https://dashboard.ornnai.com. The specified finalized daily value shown on the chart will be used for resolution. Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.
Resolution will occur once the specified data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered.
Volume
$23,392End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 11:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://dashboard.ornnai.com/computeResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent H200 shipments to Chinese buyers (roughly 20,000 units to ByteDance and Tencent) and NVIDIA’s prior stockpile of ~500,000 units have loosened near-term Western supply, while the Blackwell ramp and Vera Rubin transition continue shifting demand toward newer silicon. Marketplace and neo-cloud providers currently list on-demand rates from $2.60–$4.50 per GPU-hour, versus hyperscaler premiums above $10, with spot/interruptible tiers adding further variance. These overlapping supply, competitive-tier, and generational-substitution dynamics produce the tight clustering of trader-implied probabilities across the $4.00–$5.50 bands through September.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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