Nvidia’s current ~$5T valuation and the closely matched Polymarket ranges for end-2026 reflect strong data-center revenue momentum offset by intensifying competition. Record fiscal 2026 results, a $1T backlog for 2026–2027, and the upcoming August 26 earnings release underpin the modest lead for the $6.5T+ outcome, while AMD’s triple-digit data-center growth, Google’s TPU ramp, and hyperscaler custom silicon (Trainium, Inferentia) support the near-equal probability assigned to sub-$4T. Traders are weighing Nvidia’s CUDA ecosystem and new financing pacts against potential share loss and slower GPU demand growth as inference workloads shift toward optimized or in-house chips. The balanced distribution highlights uncertainty around whether sustained AI capex will outweigh competitive erosion through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?
Nvidia’s Market Cap end of 2026?
$6.50T+ 20%
<$4.00T 20%
$4.00-$4.50T 15%
$4.50-$5.00T 14%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$4.00T
20%
$4.00-$4.50T
15%
$4.50-$5.00T
14%
$5.00-$5.50T
14%
$5.50-$6.00T
12%
$6.00-$6.50T
13%
$6.50T+
20%
$6.50T+ 20%
<$4.00T 20%
$4.00-$4.50T 15%
$4.50-$5.00T 14%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$4.00T
$1,403 Vol.
20%
$4.00-$4.50T
$186 Vol.
15%
$4.50-$5.00T
$174 Vol.
14%
$5.00-$5.50T
$81 Vol.
14%
$5.50-$6.00T
$1,860 Vol.
12%
$6.00-$6.50T
$143 Vol.
13%
$6.50T+
$253 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to Nvidia's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Nvidia’s current ~$5T valuation and the closely matched Polymarket ranges for end-2026 reflect strong data-center revenue momentum offset by intensifying competition. Record fiscal 2026 results, a $1T backlog for 2026–2027, and the upcoming August 26 earnings release underpin the modest lead for the $6.5T+ outcome, while AMD’s triple-digit data-center growth, Google’s TPU ramp, and hyperscaler custom silicon (Trainium, Inferentia) support the near-equal probability assigned to sub-$4T. Traders are weighing Nvidia’s CUDA ecosystem and new financing pacts against potential share loss and slower GPU demand growth as inference workloads shift toward optimized or in-house chips. The balanced distribution highlights uncertainty around whether sustained AI capex will outweigh competitive erosion through year-end.
This market will resolve according to Nvidia's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ET
Volume
$4,100End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Nvidia's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Nvidia’s current ~$5T valuation and the closely matched Polymarket ranges for end-2026 reflect strong data-center revenue momentum offset by intensifying competition. Record fiscal 2026 results, a $1T backlog for 2026–2027, and the upcoming August 26 earnings release underpin the modest lead for the $6.5T+ outcome, while AMD’s triple-digit data-center growth, Google’s TPU ramp, and hyperscaler custom silicon (Trainium, Inferentia) support the near-equal probability assigned to sub-$4T. Traders are weighing Nvidia’s CUDA ecosystem and new financing pacts against potential share loss and slower GPU demand growth as inference workloads shift toward optimized or in-house chips. The balanced distribution highlights uncertainty around whether sustained AI capex will outweigh competitive erosion through year-end.
This market will resolve according to Nvidia's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$4,100End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Nvidia’s current ~$5T valuation and the closely matched Polymarket ranges for end-2026 reflect strong data-center revenue momentum offset by intensifying competition. Record fiscal 2026 results, a $1T backlog for 2026–2027, and the upcoming August 26 earnings release underpin the modest lead for the $6.5T+ outcome, while AMD’s triple-digit data-center growth, Google’s TPU ramp, and hyperscaler custom silicon (Trainium, Inferentia) support the near-equal probability assigned to sub-$4T. Traders are weighing Nvidia’s CUDA ecosystem and new financing pacts against potential share loss and slower GPU demand growth as inference workloads shift toward optimized or in-house chips. The balanced distribution highlights uncertainty around whether sustained AI capex will outweigh competitive erosion through year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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