Amazon’s current market capitalization near $2.8 trillion, following a brief breach above $3 trillion after its July 30, 2026 Q2 earnings beat, anchors trader sentiment around the $2.50–3.00 trillion bin. Robust 20% revenue growth to $200.6 billion and 37% AWS expansion—its quickest pace in 18 quarters—driven by AI infrastructure demand, lifted shares, while $220 billion planned 2026 capital expenditures pressure near-term free cash flow and margins. Advertising revenue also advanced 26%, adding high-margin support. With four months left in the year and ongoing hyperscaler competition, these factors keep the $2.50–3.00 trillion and $3.00–3.50 trillion ranges as the clearest implied-probability clusters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2.50-$3.00T 34%
$3.00-$3.50T 26%
$2.00-$2.50T 17%
$3.50-$4.00T 15%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$2.00T
5%
$2.00-$2.50T
17%
$2.50-$3.00T
34%
$3.00-$3.50T
26%
$3.50-$4.00T
15%
$4.00-$4.50T
7%
$4.50T+
7%
$2.50-$3.00T 34%
$3.00-$3.50T 26%
$2.00-$2.50T 17%
$3.50-$4.00T 15%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
<$2.00T
$176 Vol.
5%
$2.00-$2.50T
$208 Vol.
17%
$2.50-$3.00T
$549 Vol.
34%
$3.00-$3.50T
$156 Vol.
26%
$3.50-$4.00T
$226 Vol.
15%
$4.00-$4.50T
$160 Vol.
7%
$4.50T+
$185 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Amazon’s current market capitalization near $2.8 trillion, following a brief breach above $3 trillion after its July 30, 2026 Q2 earnings beat, anchors trader sentiment around the $2.50–3.00 trillion bin. Robust 20% revenue growth to $200.6 billion and 37% AWS expansion—its quickest pace in 18 quarters—driven by AI infrastructure demand, lifted shares, while $220 billion planned 2026 capital expenditures pressure near-term free cash flow and margins. Advertising revenue also advanced 26%, adding high-margin support. With four months left in the year and ongoing hyperscaler competition, these factors keep the $2.50–3.00 trillion and $3.00–3.50 trillion ranges as the clearest implied-probability clusters.
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Market Opened: Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ET
Volume
$1,659End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.Amazon’s current market capitalization near $2.8 trillion, following a brief breach above $3 trillion after its July 30, 2026 Q2 earnings beat, anchors trader sentiment around the $2.50–3.00 trillion bin. Robust 20% revenue growth to $200.6 billion and 37% AWS expansion—its quickest pace in 18 quarters—driven by AI infrastructure demand, lifted shares, while $220 billion planned 2026 capital expenditures pressure near-term free cash flow and margins. Advertising revenue also advanced 26%, adding high-margin support. With four months left in the year and ongoing hyperscaler competition, these factors keep the $2.50–3.00 trillion and $3.00–3.50 trillion ranges as the clearest implied-probability clusters.
This market will resolve according to Amazon's public market capitalization at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
If the determined value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
Public market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the final official regular-hours closing prices published for the company's listed equities on its primary exchange for the last trading day of 2026, multiplied by the company's total number of shares outstanding at the relevant time. If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently. The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings).
If the listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies.
If the listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, the public market capitalizations achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution.
The resolution source for this market is official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts.
Volume
$1,659End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 5, 2026, 7:54 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amazon’s current market capitalization near $2.8 trillion, following a brief breach above $3 trillion after its July 30, 2026 Q2 earnings beat, anchors trader sentiment around the $2.50–3.00 trillion bin. Robust 20% revenue growth to $200.6 billion and 37% AWS expansion—its quickest pace in 18 quarters—driven by AI infrastructure demand, lifted shares, while $220 billion planned 2026 capital expenditures pressure near-term free cash flow and margins. Advertising revenue also advanced 26%, adding high-margin support. With four months left in the year and ongoing hyperscaler competition, these factors keep the $2.50–3.00 trillion and $3.00–3.50 trillion ranges as the clearest implied-probability clusters.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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