Core PCE YoY - July 2026

Aug 26

3.3% 100.0%

3.5% <1%

≤3.0% <1%

3.1% <1%

$55,235 Vol.

Aug 26, 2026

≤3.0%

$3,416 Vol.

<1%

3.1%

$2,585 Vol.

<1%

3.2%

$12,197 Vol.

<1%

3.3%

$30,149 Vol.

100%

3.4%

$3,083 Vol.

<1%

3.5%

$2,327 Vol.

<1%

3.6%+

$1,479 Vol.

<1%

3.3% 100.0%

3.5% <1%

≤3.0% <1%

3.1% <1%

$55,235 Vol.

Aug 26, 2026

≤3.0%

$3,416 Vol.

<1%

3.1%

$2,585 Vol.

<1%

3.2%

$12,197 Vol.

<1%

3.3%

$30,149 Vol.

100%

3.4%

$3,083 Vol.

<1%

3.5%

$2,327 Vol.

<1%

3.6%+

$1,479 Vol.

<1%

This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Dispute window

Final

Outcome proposed: Yes

Dispute window

Final

Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?

100%

Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in August?

43%

Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or more in August?

59%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Core PCE YoY - July 2026" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3.3%" at 100%, followed by "≤3.0%" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Core PCE YoY - July 2026" has generated $55.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 31, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Core PCE YoY - July 2026," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Core PCE YoY - July 2026" is "3.3%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "≤3.0%" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Core PCE YoY - July 2026" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Core PCE YoY - July 2026." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $55.2K traded on “Core PCE YoY - July 2026,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Core PCE YoY - July 2026," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "3.3%" in the "Core PCE YoY - July 2026" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "3.3%" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Core PCE YoY - July 2026" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Aug 26, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Core PCE YoY - July 2026" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Core PCE YoY - July 2026." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Core PCE YoY - July 2026

Core PCE YoY - July 2026

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