**Core PCE YoY for July 2026 trades with 3.3% as the dominant outcome at 78.5% implied probability, reflecting the June print of 3.3% and consensus forecasts holding steady ahead of the August 26 release.** July CPI data showed core inflation easing to 2.5% year-over-year with a 0.2% monthly rise, providing a cooler signal on underlying price pressures even as certain goods categories tied to technology spending posted rebounds. This aligns with the gradual disinflation path observed in recent months, where core PCE has stabilized near 3.3% after earlier moderation from 3.4%. Traders are pricing limited scope for a downside surprise to 3.2% (21.0% odds) given the stickiness in services and shelter components, while upside risks to 3.4% or higher remain minimal at under 1% combined. The upcoming Personal Income and Outlays report will incorporate broader consumer spending weights than CPI, serving as a key input for September FOMC deliberations amid ongoing policy uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.3% 79%
3.2% 21%
3.4% <1%
3.1% <1%
$49,729 Vol.
$49,729 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
≤3.0%
<1%
3.1%
1%
3.2%
21%
3.3%
79%
3.4%
1%
3.5%
<1%
3.6%+
<1%
3.3% 79%
3.2% 21%
3.4% <1%
3.1% <1%
$49,729 Vol.
$49,729 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
≤3.0%
$1,639 Vol.
<1%
3.1%
$2,263 Vol.
1%
3.2%
$11,823 Vol.
21%
3.3%
$29,144 Vol.
79%
3.4%
$2,557 Vol.
1%
3.5%
$1,091 Vol.
<1%
3.6%+
$1,213 Vol.
<1%
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Core PCE YoY for July 2026 trades with 3.3% as the dominant outcome at 78.5% implied probability, reflecting the June print of 3.3% and consensus forecasts holding steady ahead of the August 26 release.**
July CPI data showed core inflation easing to 2.5% year-over-year with a 0.2% monthly rise, providing a cooler signal on underlying price pressures even as certain goods categories tied to technology spending posted rebounds. This aligns with the gradual disinflation path observed in recent months, where core PCE has stabilized near 3.3% after earlier moderation from 3.4%. Traders are pricing limited scope for a downside surprise to 3.2% (21.0% odds) given the stickiness in services and shelter components, while upside risks to 3.4% or higher remain minimal at under 1% combined. The upcoming Personal Income and Outlays report will incorporate broader consumer spending weights than CPI, serving as a key input for September FOMC deliberations amid ongoing policy uncertainty.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$49,729End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Core PCE YoY for July 2026 trades with 3.3% as the dominant outcome at 78.5% implied probability, reflecting the June print of 3.3% and consensus forecasts holding steady ahead of the August 26 release.**
July CPI data showed core inflation easing to 2.5% year-over-year with a 0.2% monthly rise, providing a cooler signal on underlying price pressures even as certain goods categories tied to technology spending posted rebounds. This aligns with the gradual disinflation path observed in recent months, where core PCE has stabilized near 3.3% after earlier moderation from 3.4%. Traders are pricing limited scope for a downside surprise to 3.2% (21.0% odds) given the stickiness in services and shelter components, while upside risks to 3.4% or higher remain minimal at under 1% combined. The upcoming Personal Income and Outlays report will incorporate broader consumer spending weights than CPI, serving as a key input for September FOMC deliberations amid ongoing policy uncertainty.
This is a market about percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 12-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$49,729End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Core PCE YoY for July 2026 trades with 3.3% as the dominant outcome at 78.5% implied probability, reflecting the June print of 3.3% and consensus forecasts holding steady ahead of the August 26 release.** July CPI data showed core inflation easing to 2.5% year-over-year with a 0.2% monthly rise, providing a cooler signal on underlying price pressures even as certain goods categories tied to technology spending posted rebounds. This aligns with the gradual disinflation path observed in recent months, where core PCE has stabilized near 3.3% after earlier moderation from 3.4%. Traders are pricing limited scope for a downside surprise to 3.2% (21.0% odds) given the stickiness in services and shelter components, while upside risks to 3.4% or higher remain minimal at under 1% combined. The upcoming Personal Income and Outlays report will incorporate broader consumer spending weights than CPI, serving as a key input for September FOMC deliberations amid ongoing policy uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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