**July 2026 Core PCE month-over-month data, scheduled for release August 26, remains the primary driver of current market-implied odds.** Following the July CPI report that delivered a 0.2% core increase in line with forecasts and the June Core PCE print of 0.1% (below the 0.2% consensus), trader positioning favors a 0.2% outcome as the base case consistent with recent inflation moderation and consensus estimates. Elevated year-over-year readings near 3.3%, combined with rebounding core goods prices tied to technology spending and persistent services pressures, anchor expectations around this level while limiting downside surprises. Broader context includes stable Treasury yields and reduced near-term rate-hike probabilities, reinforcing the 0.2% cluster as the market's aggregated assessment of incoming data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.2% 68%
0.3% 14%
0.1% 3.0%
0.4%+ 1.2%
$34,391 Vol.
$34,391 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
≤-0.2%
<1%
-0.1%
<1%
0.0%
<1%
0.1%
3%
0.2%
68%
0.3%
14%
0.4%+
1%
0.2% 68%
0.3% 14%
0.1% 3.0%
0.4%+ 1.2%
$34,391 Vol.
$34,391 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
≤-0.2%
$651 Vol.
<1%
-0.1%
$861 Vol.
<1%
0.0%
$1,119 Vol.
<1%
0.1%
$3,246 Vol.
3%
0.2%
$6,260 Vol.
68%
0.3%
$19,120 Vol.
14%
0.4%+
$3,135 Vol.
1%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**July 2026 Core PCE month-over-month data, scheduled for release August 26, remains the primary driver of current market-implied odds.** Following the July CPI report that delivered a 0.2% core increase in line with forecasts and the June Core PCE print of 0.1% (below the 0.2% consensus), trader positioning favors a 0.2% outcome as the base case consistent with recent inflation moderation and consensus estimates. Elevated year-over-year readings near 3.3%, combined with rebounding core goods prices tied to technology spending and persistent services pressures, anchor expectations around this level while limiting downside surprises. Broader context includes stable Treasury yields and reduced near-term rate-hike probabilities, reinforcing the 0.2% cluster as the market's aggregated assessment of incoming data.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$34,391End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**July 2026 Core PCE month-over-month data, scheduled for release August 26, remains the primary driver of current market-implied odds.** Following the July CPI report that delivered a 0.2% core increase in line with forecasts and the June Core PCE print of 0.1% (below the 0.2% consensus), trader positioning favors a 0.2% outcome as the base case consistent with recent inflation moderation and consensus estimates. Elevated year-over-year readings near 3.3%, combined with rebounding core goods prices tied to technology spending and persistent services pressures, anchor expectations around this level while limiting downside surprises. Broader context includes stable Treasury yields and reduced near-term rate-hike probabilities, reinforcing the 0.2% cluster as the market's aggregated assessment of incoming data.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$34,391End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**July 2026 Core PCE month-over-month data, scheduled for release August 26, remains the primary driver of current market-implied odds.** Following the July CPI report that delivered a 0.2% core increase in line with forecasts and the June Core PCE print of 0.1% (below the 0.2% consensus), trader positioning favors a 0.2% outcome as the base case consistent with recent inflation moderation and consensus estimates. Elevated year-over-year readings near 3.3%, combined with rebounding core goods prices tied to technology spending and persistent services pressures, anchor expectations around this level while limiting downside surprises. Broader context includes stable Treasury yields and reduced near-term rate-hike probabilities, reinforcing the 0.2% cluster as the market's aggregated assessment of incoming data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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