Recent polls from August 2026 place the CDU at 19-20% in Berlin’s Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, reflecting a fragmented field where Die Linke leads or ties near 20%, AfD sits close behind, and SPD and Greens hover in the mid-teens. This tight clustering around 19% supports the 17-20% and 20-23% bands as the most probable outcomes according to trader consensus. Key influences include ongoing coalition strains between the governing CDU and SPD, voter focus on housing shortages and security, and modest CDU gains that have not translated into a clearer lead amid rising support for left and right alternatives. Upcoming final campaign weeks and any late shifts in turnout or undecided voters remain the primary variables that could adjust the CDU’s final share.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated17-20% 46%
20-23% 29%
<17% 16%
23%+ 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<17%
16%
17-20%
46%
20-23%
29%
23%+
7%
17-20% 46%
20-23% 29%
<17% 16%
23%+ 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<17%
$622 Vol.
16%
17-20%
$479 Vol.
46%
20-23%
$269 Vol.
29%
23%+
$250 Vol.
7%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls from August 2026 place the CDU at 19-20% in Berlin’s Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, reflecting a fragmented field where Die Linke leads or ties near 20%, AfD sits close behind, and SPD and Greens hover in the mid-teens. This tight clustering around 19% supports the 17-20% and 20-23% bands as the most probable outcomes according to trader consensus. Key influences include ongoing coalition strains between the governing CDU and SPD, voter focus on housing shortages and security, and modest CDU gains that have not translated into a clearer lead amid rising support for left and right alternatives. Upcoming final campaign weeks and any late shifts in turnout or undecided voters remain the primary variables that could adjust the CDU’s final share.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET
Volume
$1,620End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls from August 2026 place the CDU at 19-20% in Berlin’s Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, reflecting a fragmented field where Die Linke leads or ties near 20%, AfD sits close behind, and SPD and Greens hover in the mid-teens. This tight clustering around 19% supports the 17-20% and 20-23% bands as the most probable outcomes according to trader consensus. Key influences include ongoing coalition strains between the governing CDU and SPD, voter focus on housing shortages and security, and modest CDU gains that have not translated into a clearer lead amid rising support for left and right alternatives. Upcoming final campaign weeks and any late shifts in turnout or undecided voters remain the primary variables that could adjust the CDU’s final share.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$1,620End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from August 2026 place the CDU at 19-20% in Berlin’s Abgeordnetenhaus election on September 20, reflecting a fragmented field where Die Linke leads or ties near 20%, AfD sits close behind, and SPD and Greens hover in the mid-teens. This tight clustering around 19% supports the 17-20% and 20-23% bands as the most probable outcomes according to trader consensus. Key influences include ongoing coalition strains between the governing CDU and SPD, voter focus on housing shortages and security, and modest CDU gains that have not translated into a clearer lead amid rising support for left and right alternatives. Upcoming final campaign weeks and any late shifts in turnout or undecided voters remain the primary variables that could adjust the CDU’s final share.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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