Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election place the SPD at 12-15 percent, with the latest Forsa survey (August 4-18) showing 12 percent and INSA (August 7-13) at 15 percent. This range follows a gradual decline from earlier 2026 readings near 16-17 percent and the party’s 18.4 percent result in 2023. As the junior partner in the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition, the SPD faces headwinds from voter shifts toward The Left (now polling 19-22 percent) and AfD amid broader dissatisfaction with the government. The consistent clustering of results in the low-to-mid teens has positioned the 10-13 percent outcome as the market’s leading interval, with the 13-16 percent bin reflecting residual upside uncertainty in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBerlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?
Berlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?
10-13% 51%
13-16% 32%
<10% 13.5%
16%+ 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<10%
14%
10-13%
51%
13-16%
32%
16%+
10%
10-13% 51%
13-16% 32%
<10% 13.5%
16%+ 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<10%
$570 Vol.
14%
10-13%
$885 Vol.
51%
13-16%
$503 Vol.
32%
16%+
$972 Vol.
10%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election place the SPD at 12-15 percent, with the latest Forsa survey (August 4-18) showing 12 percent and INSA (August 7-13) at 15 percent. This range follows a gradual decline from earlier 2026 readings near 16-17 percent and the party’s 18.4 percent result in 2023. As the junior partner in the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition, the SPD faces headwinds from voter shifts toward The Left (now polling 19-22 percent) and AfD amid broader dissatisfaction with the government. The consistent clustering of results in the low-to-mid teens has positioned the 10-13 percent outcome as the market’s leading interval, with the 13-16 percent bin reflecting residual upside uncertainty in the final weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Volume
$2,931End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election place the SPD at 12-15 percent, with the latest Forsa survey (August 4-18) showing 12 percent and INSA (August 7-13) at 15 percent. This range follows a gradual decline from earlier 2026 readings near 16-17 percent and the party’s 18.4 percent result in 2023. As the junior partner in the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition, the SPD faces headwinds from voter shifts toward The Left (now polling 19-22 percent) and AfD amid broader dissatisfaction with the government. The consistent clustering of results in the low-to-mid teens has positioned the 10-13 percent outcome as the market’s leading interval, with the 13-16 percent bin reflecting residual upside uncertainty in the final weeks.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$2,931End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for Berlin’s September 20 state election place the SPD at 12-15 percent, with the latest Forsa survey (August 4-18) showing 12 percent and INSA (August 7-13) at 15 percent. This range follows a gradual decline from earlier 2026 readings near 16-17 percent and the party’s 18.4 percent result in 2023. As the junior partner in the outgoing CDU-SPD coalition, the SPD faces headwinds from voter shifts toward The Left (now polling 19-22 percent) and AfD amid broader dissatisfaction with the government. The consistent clustering of results in the low-to-mid teens has positioned the 10-13 percent outcome as the market’s leading interval, with the 13-16 percent bin reflecting residual upside uncertainty in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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