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icon for Berlin State Election: CDU Vote Share?
World·Berlin

Berlin State Election: CDU Vote Share?

icon for Berlin State Election: CDU Vote Share?
World·Berlin

Berlin State Election: CDU Vote Share?

17-20% 46%

20-23% 34%

<17% 22%

23%+ 7%

Polymarket
NEW

17-20% 46%

20-23% 34%

<17% 22%

23%+ 7%

Polymarket
NEW

<17%

$590 Vol.

22%

17-20%

$479 Vol.

46%

20-23%

$269 Vol.

29%

23%+

$250 Vol.

7%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place CDU support in the 18–20% range for the September 20 Berlin state election, reflecting a competitive multi-party contest against Linke, AfD, Greens, and SPD. Incumbent CDU-SPD coalition performance, candidate positioning under Stefan Evers, and voter concerns over local governance have kept CDU numbers steady but capped, with no single party exceeding low-20s support in August surveys. Tight spreads between 17–20% and 20–23% outcomes align with poll volatility and the “wisdom of crowds” assessment of late-campaign shifts possible through turnout or coalition signaling. Structural factors such as Berlin’s proportional system and five-party fragmentation further support the current market distribution.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$1,588
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polling averages place CDU support in the 18–20% range for the September 20 Berlin state election, reflecting a competitive multi-party contest against Linke, AfD, Greens, and SPD. Incumbent CDU-SPD coalition performance, candidate positioning under Stefan Evers, and voter concerns over local governance have kept CDU numbers steady but capped, with no single party exceeding low-20s support in August surveys. Tight spreads between 17–20% and 20–23% outcomes align with poll volatility and the “wisdom of crowds” assessment of late-campaign shifts possible through turnout or coalition signaling. Structural factors such as Berlin’s proportional system and five-party fragmentation further support the current market distribution.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$1,588
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Related

icon for Will AfD win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?

Will AfD win between 14% and 17% of all valid second votes?

40%
icon for Will SPD win between 10% and 13% of all valid second votes?

Will SPD win between 10% and 13% of all valid second votes?

51%
icon for Will Linke win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes?

Will Linke win between 20% and 23% of all valid second votes?

56%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Berlin State Election: CDU Vote Share?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "17-20%" at 46%, followed by "20-23%" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 46¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Berlin State Election: CDU Vote Share?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 20, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Berlin State Election: CDU Vote Share?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Berlin State Election: CDU Vote Share?" is "17-20%" at 46%, meaning the market assigns a 46% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "20-23%" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Berlin State Election: CDU Vote Share?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.