Recent Berlin polling shows a fragmented contest with Die Linke often ahead near 19-22%, followed closely by CDU and AfD around 17-20% and Grüne near 16-17%, leaving third place highly sensitive to small shifts in turnout or preference flows among left-leaning voters. The CDU's mid-campaign switch to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner's withdrawal provided modest stabilization, while AfD gains reflect broader national trends. SPD remains well behind, and smaller parties sit below the threshold. This narrow clustering sustains trader focus on AfD, Grüne, and CDU as the primary 3rd-place contenders, with late mobilization or district-level variation the main factors that could reorder the outcome before the September 20 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAfD 34%
Grüne 29%
CDU 27%
Linke 10%
$22,608 Vol.
$22,608 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
34%
Grüne
29%
CDU
27%
Linke
10%
SPD
9%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
BSW
<1%
AfD 34%
Grüne 29%
CDU 27%
Linke 10%
$22,608 Vol.
$22,608 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
$5,435 Vol.
34%
Grüne
$3,681 Vol.
29%
CDU
$5,639 Vol.
27%
Linke
$4,578 Vol.
10%
SPD
$1,268 Vol.
9%
FDP
$674 Vol.
<1%
FW
$582 Vol.
<1%
BSW
$750 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent Berlin polling shows a fragmented contest with Die Linke often ahead near 19-22%, followed closely by CDU and AfD around 17-20% and Grüne near 16-17%, leaving third place highly sensitive to small shifts in turnout or preference flows among left-leaning voters. The CDU's mid-campaign switch to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner's withdrawal provided modest stabilization, while AfD gains reflect broader national trends. SPD remains well behind, and smaller parties sit below the threshold. This narrow clustering sustains trader focus on AfD, Grüne, and CDU as the primary 3rd-place contenders, with late mobilization or district-level variation the main factors that could reorder the outcome before the September 20 vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Market Opened: Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ET
Volume
$22,608End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent Berlin polling shows a fragmented contest with Die Linke often ahead near 19-22%, followed closely by CDU and AfD around 17-20% and Grüne near 16-17%, leaving third place highly sensitive to small shifts in turnout or preference flows among left-leaning voters. The CDU's mid-campaign switch to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner's withdrawal provided modest stabilization, while AfD gains reflect broader national trends. SPD remains well behind, and smaller parties sit below the threshold. This narrow clustering sustains trader focus on AfD, Grüne, and CDU as the primary 3rd-place contenders, with late mobilization or district-level variation the main factors that could reorder the outcome before the September 20 vote.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$22,608End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Jul 7, 2026, 9:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Berlin polling shows a fragmented contest with Die Linke often ahead near 19-22%, followed closely by CDU and AfD around 17-20% and Grüne near 16-17%, leaving third place highly sensitive to small shifts in turnout or preference flows among left-leaning voters. The CDU's mid-campaign switch to Stefan Evers after Kai Wegner's withdrawal provided modest stabilization, while AfD gains reflect broader national trends. SPD remains well behind, and smaller parties sit below the threshold. This narrow clustering sustains trader focus on AfD, Grüne, and CDU as the primary 3rd-place contenders, with late mobilization or district-level variation the main factors that could reorder the outcome before the September 20 vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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