Canada's federal government implemented sharp reductions in permanent and temporary resident targets starting in late 2024, including 380,000 permanent residents for 2026 and a goal of cutting non-permanent residents to 5% of the population by year-end. These policy shifts triggered sustained net outflows of international students and temporary workers, producing quarterly population declines through late 2025 and into 2026. Statistics Canada data show a 55,000-person drop in Q1 2026 alone—the third consecutive quarterly decline—with cumulative losses exceeding 200,000 since mid-2025. Official projections from the government and Parliamentary Budget Office anticipate flat or negative growth for the full year, exceeding prior record contractions outside the pandemic period. Trader pricing reflects these confirmed inflows, outflows, and demographic trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Jan 29, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on the most recent data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Canada's federal government implemented sharp reductions in permanent and temporary resident targets starting in late 2024, including 380,000 permanent residents for 2026 and a goal of cutting non-permanent residents to 5% of the population by year-end. These policy shifts triggered sustained net outflows of international students and temporary workers, producing quarterly population declines through late 2025 and into 2026. Statistics Canada data show a 55,000-person drop in Q1 2026 alone—the third consecutive quarterly decline—with cumulative losses exceeding 200,000 since mid-2025. Official projections from the government and Parliamentary Budget Office anticipate flat or negative growth for the full year, exceeding prior record contractions outside the pandemic period. Trader pricing reflects these confirmed inflows, outflows, and demographic trends.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated


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