**Recent strong S&P Global flash services PMI data for August and the sector’s steady expansion streak anchor trader expectations for the official ISM reading near or above 54.** The July ISM Services PMI printed at 54.1, extending 25 consecutive months above 50, with business activity surging to 59.1 and new orders rising to 57.2, while employment slipped back into contraction at 47.4 and prices paid climbed to 70.3 amid ongoing tariff and energy cost pressures. The August S&P flash services gauge jumped to a 20-month high of 56.8, well above consensus, signaling firmer demand and hiring momentum that market participants are pricing into the ISM distribution. This supports the leading 55.0–55.9 bucket at 42.9% implied probability, followed by 53.0–53.9 at 32.0% and 54.0–54.9 at 18.1%, reflecting a tight cluster around the recent 54-handle average. Persistent cost pressures and softer employment readings introduce downside risk, but resilient new orders and consumer spending keep the balance tilted toward moderate expansion. The September 3 release will resolve the market amid stable labor-market conditions and no near-term Fed rate changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated55.0–55.9 42.1%
53.0–53.9 32%
54.0–54.9 19.5%
52.0–52.9 5.2%
$34,360 Vol.
$34,360 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
<50.0
<1%
50.0–50.9
1%
51.0–51.9
1%
52.0–52.9
5%
53.0–53.9
32%
54.0–54.9
20%
55.0–55.9
42%
56.0–56.9
4%
57.0–57.9
2%
58.0+
1%
55.0–55.9 42.1%
53.0–53.9 32%
54.0–54.9 19.5%
52.0–52.9 5.2%
$34,360 Vol.
$34,360 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
<50.0
$640 Vol.
<1%
50.0–50.9
$733 Vol.
1%
51.0–51.9
$741 Vol.
1%
52.0–52.9
$3,948 Vol.
5%
53.0–53.9
$15,143 Vol.
32%
54.0–54.9
$6,223 Vol.
20%
55.0–55.9
$4,522 Vol.
42%
56.0–56.9
$839 Vol.
4%
57.0–57.9
$836 Vol.
2%
58.0+
$737 Vol.
1%
This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Recent strong S&P Global flash services PMI data for August and the sector’s steady expansion streak anchor trader expectations for the official ISM reading near or above 54.** The July ISM Services PMI printed at 54.1, extending 25 consecutive months above 50, with business activity surging to 59.1 and new orders rising to 57.2, while employment slipped back into contraction at 47.4 and prices paid climbed to 70.3 amid ongoing tariff and energy cost pressures.
The August S&P flash services gauge jumped to a 20-month high of 56.8, well above consensus, signaling firmer demand and hiring momentum that market participants are pricing into the ISM distribution. This supports the leading 55.0–55.9 bucket at 42.9% implied probability, followed by 53.0–53.9 at 32.0% and 54.0–54.9 at 18.1%, reflecting a tight cluster around the recent 54-handle average. Persistent cost pressures and softer employment readings introduce downside risk, but resilient new orders and consumer spending keep the balance tilted toward moderate expansion. The September 3 release will resolve the market amid stable labor-market conditions and no near-term Fed rate changes.
This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ET
Volume
$34,360End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ETThis is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.**Recent strong S&P Global flash services PMI data for August and the sector’s steady expansion streak anchor trader expectations for the official ISM reading near or above 54.** The July ISM Services PMI printed at 54.1, extending 25 consecutive months above 50, with business activity surging to 59.1 and new orders rising to 57.2, while employment slipped back into contraction at 47.4 and prices paid climbed to 70.3 amid ongoing tariff and energy cost pressures.
The August S&P flash services gauge jumped to a 20-month high of 56.8, well above consensus, signaling firmer demand and hiring momentum that market participants are pricing into the ISM distribution. This supports the leading 55.0–55.9 bucket at 42.9% implied probability, followed by 53.0–53.9 at 32.0% and 54.0–54.9 at 18.1%, reflecting a tight cluster around the recent 54-handle average. Persistent cost pressures and softer employment readings introduce downside risk, but resilient new orders and consumer spending keep the balance tilted toward moderate expansion. The September 3 release will resolve the market amid stable labor-market conditions and no near-term Fed rate changes.
This is a market about the ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August 2026, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the services sector relative to the previous month; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the ISM Services PMI for August 2026 according to the monthly ISM Services PMI Report On Business.
The resolution source for this market will be the ISM Services PMI Report On Business released for August 2026 (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/), currently scheduled to be released on September 3, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: although ISM describes the PMI reading using the term "percent" in its official release (e.g., "The Services PMI registered 53.6 percent"), the PMI is a diffusion index, not a true percentage. For the purposes of this market, the PMI reading will be treated as a plain numerical value, consistent with how the index is universally quoted in financial markets.
Note: The ISM Services PMI is reported to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
If ISM does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open until the scheduled release time of the next ISM Services PMI report (https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/rob-report-calendar/). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$34,360End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ET**Recent strong S&P Global flash services PMI data for August and the sector’s steady expansion streak anchor trader expectations for the official ISM reading near or above 54.** The July ISM Services PMI printed at 54.1, extending 25 consecutive months above 50, with business activity surging to 59.1 and new orders rising to 57.2, while employment slipped back into contraction at 47.4 and prices paid climbed to 70.3 amid ongoing tariff and energy cost pressures. The August S&P flash services gauge jumped to a 20-month high of 56.8, well above consensus, signaling firmer demand and hiring momentum that market participants are pricing into the ISM distribution. This supports the leading 55.0–55.9 bucket at 42.9% implied probability, followed by 53.0–53.9 at 32.0% and 54.0–54.9 at 18.1%, reflecting a tight cluster around the recent 54-handle average. Persistent cost pressures and softer employment readings introduce downside risk, but resilient new orders and consumer spending keep the balance tilted toward moderate expansion. The September 3 release will resolve the market amid stable labor-market conditions and no near-term Fed rate changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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