**Persistent energy-driven inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict have cemented trader expectations for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike at the September 2026 Governing Council meeting.** The policy rate currently stands at 2.25% after the June increase, and recent euro area HICP data showing headline inflation near 2.9%—with core measures also firming—have reinforced the case for this adjustment to the upper end of the neutral range. Analysts and futures markets highlight limited but present risks of second-round effects alongside resilient economic activity, supporting the move as a precautionary step consistent with the ECB’s data-dependent approach. A swift, durable de-escalation in energy markets before the September 10 decision remains the primary scenario that could shift the outcome toward no change, though current conditions make that outcome appear remote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25 bps increase 95%
No change 4.2%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$250,628 Vol.
$250,628 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
4%
25 bps increase
95%
50+ bps increase
<1%
25 bps increase 95%
No change 4.2%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$250,628 Vol.
$250,628 Vol.
Sep 10, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$14,931 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$29,599 Vol.
<1%
No change
$78,316 Vol.
4%
25 bps increase
$91,838 Vol.
95%
50+ bps increase
$35,944 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent energy-driven inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict have cemented trader expectations for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike at the September 2026 Governing Council meeting.** The policy rate currently stands at 2.25% after the June increase, and recent euro area HICP data showing headline inflation near 2.9%—with core measures also firming—have reinforced the case for this adjustment to the upper end of the neutral range. Analysts and futures markets highlight limited but present risks of second-round effects alongside resilient economic activity, supporting the move as a precautionary step consistent with the ECB’s data-dependent approach. A swift, durable de-escalation in energy markets before the September 10 decision remains the primary scenario that could shift the outcome toward no change, though current conditions make that outcome appear remote.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ET
Volume
$250,628End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent energy-driven inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict have cemented trader expectations for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike at the September 2026 Governing Council meeting.** The policy rate currently stands at 2.25% after the June increase, and recent euro area HICP data showing headline inflation near 2.9%—with core measures also firming—have reinforced the case for this adjustment to the upper end of the neutral range. Analysts and futures markets highlight limited but present risks of second-round effects alongside resilient economic activity, supporting the move as a precautionary step consistent with the ECB’s data-dependent approach. A swift, durable de-escalation in energy markets before the September 10 decision remains the primary scenario that could shift the outcome toward no change, though current conditions make that outcome appear remote.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its September 2026 meeting, scheduled for September 9-10, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's September 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$250,628End Date
Sep 10, 2026Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent energy-driven inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict have cemented trader expectations for a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike at the September 2026 Governing Council meeting.** The policy rate currently stands at 2.25% after the June increase, and recent euro area HICP data showing headline inflation near 2.9%—with core measures also firming—have reinforced the case for this adjustment to the upper end of the neutral range. Analysts and futures markets highlight limited but present risks of second-round effects alongside resilient economic activity, supporting the move as a precautionary step consistent with the ECB’s data-dependent approach. A swift, durable de-escalation in energy markets before the September 10 decision remains the primary scenario that could shift the outcome toward no change, though current conditions make that outcome appear remote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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