Christine Lagarde’s commitment to remain ECB president through at least the end of 2026 underpins the 71% “No” probability that she leaves the post this year. Her eight-year term runs until October 2027, and in late July she explicitly stated she would not depart before year-end while economic conditions remain uncertain, following earlier February reports of possible early exit. Recent public appearances, including August monetary-policy and international speeches, show her continuing in the role without formal resignation signals or EU-level pressure for replacement. French political considerations around the 2027 presidential contest have prompted speculation but no confirmed timeline shift within the current calendar year, leaving traders focused on her repeated pledges of continuity and the absence of intervening institutional or personal developments that would trigger departure before December 2026.