The September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election determines the next coalition, with the incumbent SPD-Left government under Ministerpräsidentin Manuela Schwesig seeking re-election against an AfD challenge led by Leif-Erik Holm. Recent INSA and Infratest dimap polls show the AfD at 35-36% and SPD at 28-29%, followed by the Left at 11-12%, CDU at 9-10%, and smaller parties near the 5% threshold. All democratic parties maintain a firewall excluding AfD cooperation, leaving the AfD isolated despite its lead. Schwesig's SPD has narrowed the gap modestly through personal popularity, yet current numbers point to a fragmented result likely requiring a three-party arrangement such as SPD-Left-Greens or an SPD-CDU-Greens Kenia coalition if the Greens clear the hurdle. The election remains four weeks away, with BSW and FDP entry prospects adding further uncertainty to seat math and coalition arithmetic.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
Which parties will be in the next Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government?
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
BSW
12%
AfD
5%
FDP
3%
FW
1%
SPD
69%
CDU
35%
Linke
51%
Grüne
47%
$2,509 Vol.
BSW
$0 Vol.
12%
AfD
$279 Vol.
5%
FDP
$1,126 Vol.
3%
FW
$132 Vol.
1%
SPD
$764 Vol.
69%
CDU
$42 Vol.
35%
Linke
$123 Vol.
51%
Grüne
$42 Vol.
47%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government formed after the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the State Government of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.The September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election determines the next coalition, with the incumbent SPD-Left government under Ministerpräsidentin Manuela Schwesig seeking re-election against an AfD challenge led by Leif-Erik Holm. Recent INSA and Infratest dimap polls show the AfD at 35-36% and SPD at 28-29%, followed by the Left at 11-12%, CDU at 9-10%, and smaller parties near the 5% threshold. All democratic parties maintain a firewall excluding AfD cooperation, leaving the AfD isolated despite its lead. Schwesig's SPD has narrowed the gap modestly through personal popularity, yet current numbers point to a fragmented result likely requiring a three-party arrangement such as SPD-Left-Greens or an SPD-CDU-Greens Kenia coalition if the Greens clear the hurdle. The election remains four weeks away, with BSW and FDP entry prospects adding further uncertainty to seat math and coalition arithmetic.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government formed after the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the State Government of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government formed after the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the State Government of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 1:47 PM ET
Volume
$2,509End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government formed after the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the State Government of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.The September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election determines the next coalition, with the incumbent SPD-Left government under Ministerpräsidentin Manuela Schwesig seeking re-election against an AfD challenge led by Leif-Erik Holm. Recent INSA and Infratest dimap polls show the AfD at 35-36% and SPD at 28-29%, followed by the Left at 11-12%, CDU at 9-10%, and smaller parties near the 5% threshold. All democratic parties maintain a firewall excluding AfD cooperation, leaving the AfD isolated despite its lead. Schwesig's SPD has narrowed the gap modestly through personal popularity, yet current numbers point to a fragmented result likely requiring a three-party arrangement such as SPD-Left-Greens or an SPD-CDU-Greens Kenia coalition if the Greens clear the hurdle. The election remains four weeks away, with BSW and FDP entry prospects adding further uncertainty to seat math and coalition arithmetic.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government formed after the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the State Government of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government formed after the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Landtag elects the Minister-President. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Minister, including the Minister-President. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the State Government of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern.
Volume
$2,509End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 1:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The September 20, 2026, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election determines the next coalition, with the incumbent SPD-Left government under Ministerpräsidentin Manuela Schwesig seeking re-election against an AfD challenge led by Leif-Erik Holm. Recent INSA and Infratest dimap polls show the AfD at 35-36% and SPD at 28-29%, followed by the Left at 11-12%, CDU at 9-10%, and smaller parties near the 5% threshold. All democratic parties maintain a firewall excluding AfD cooperation, leaving the AfD isolated despite its lead. Schwesig's SPD has narrowed the gap modestly through personal popularity, yet current numbers point to a fragmented result likely requiring a three-party arrangement such as SPD-Left-Greens or an SPD-CDU-Greens Kenia coalition if the Greens clear the hurdle. The election remains four weeks away, with BSW and FDP entry prospects adding further uncertainty to seat math and coalition arithmetic.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions