Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts are anchoring trader expectations for the 2026 goods-and-services deficit in the $700–900 billion range. June’s $73.3 billion monthly gap, narrower than May’s $77.6 billion after imports fell 1.8 percent, contributed to a $742.7 billion trailing twelve-month total, while first-half cumulative figures suggest a full-year outcome near the lower end of that band absent renewed front-loading. New 10–12.5 percent Section 301 tariffs effective in August, replacing temporary levies, plus persistent AI-driven machinery imports and fading commodity-export tailwinds from gold and energy, are the dominant near-term influences. Markets price these dynamics as sustaining a moderate deficit trajectory, with limited probability assigned to outcomes below $600 billion or above $1 trillion given current import trends and tariff pass-through effects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
4%
600–700B
9%
700–800B
29%
800–900B
43%
900B–1T
15%
1T–1.1T
5%
1.1T+
5%
$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
$16,848 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
4%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
9%
700–800B
$670 Vol.
29%
800–900B
$1,519 Vol.
43%
900B–1T
$1,397 Vol.
15%
1T–1.1T
$1,458 Vol.
5%
1.1T+
$1,119 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts are anchoring trader expectations for the 2026 goods-and-services deficit in the $700–900 billion range. June’s $73.3 billion monthly gap, narrower than May’s $77.6 billion after imports fell 1.8 percent, contributed to a $742.7 billion trailing twelve-month total, while first-half cumulative figures suggest a full-year outcome near the lower end of that band absent renewed front-loading. New 10–12.5 percent Section 301 tariffs effective in August, replacing temporary levies, plus persistent AI-driven machinery imports and fading commodity-export tailwinds from gold and energy, are the dominant near-term influences. Markets price these dynamics as sustaining a moderate deficit trajectory, with limited probability assigned to outcomes below $600 billion or above $1 trillion given current import trends and tariff pass-through effects.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,009End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts are anchoring trader expectations for the 2026 goods-and-services deficit in the $700–900 billion range. June’s $73.3 billion monthly gap, narrower than May’s $77.6 billion after imports fell 1.8 percent, contributed to a $742.7 billion trailing twelve-month total, while first-half cumulative figures suggest a full-year outcome near the lower end of that band absent renewed front-loading. New 10–12.5 percent Section 301 tariffs effective in August, replacing temporary levies, plus persistent AI-driven machinery imports and fading commodity-export tailwinds from gold and energy, are the dominant near-term influences. Markets price these dynamics as sustaining a moderate deficit trajectory, with limited probability assigned to outcomes below $600 billion or above $1 trillion given current import trends and tariff pass-through effects.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,009End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data and policy shifts are anchoring trader expectations for the 2026 goods-and-services deficit in the $700–900 billion range. June’s $73.3 billion monthly gap, narrower than May’s $77.6 billion after imports fell 1.8 percent, contributed to a $742.7 billion trailing twelve-month total, while first-half cumulative figures suggest a full-year outcome near the lower end of that band absent renewed front-loading. New 10–12.5 percent Section 301 tariffs effective in August, replacing temporary levies, plus persistent AI-driven machinery imports and fading commodity-export tailwinds from gold and energy, are the dominant near-term influences. Markets price these dynamics as sustaining a moderate deficit trajectory, with limited probability assigned to outcomes below $600 billion or above $1 trillion given current import trends and tariff pass-through effects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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