Resilient US economic data underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2026. The Sahm Rule remains at -0.03, far below its 0.50 trigger, while the 10Y-2Y yield curve stands positive near +0.47 percentage points and initial claims hover around 199,000. Second-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, unemployment holds near 4.1-4.3%, and the ISM manufacturing PMI reached 55.6 in July, its strongest level in years, with the Conference Board Leading Economic Index turning positive. These readings reflect stable labor demand and moderate growth supported by AI investment and consumer spending. Risks include further Iran-related energy price spikes that could elevate core PCE inflation above 3% and pressure hiring, or sharper consumer retrenchment if real disposable income weakens.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS recession by end of 2026?
US recession by end of 2026?
8% chance
$1,715,353 Vol.
$1,715,353 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
8% chance
$1,715,353 Vol.
$1,715,353 Vol.
Jan 30, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productResilient US economic data underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2026. The Sahm Rule remains at -0.03, far below its 0.50 trigger, while the 10Y-2Y yield curve stands positive near +0.47 percentage points and initial claims hover around 199,000. Second-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, unemployment holds near 4.1-4.3%, and the ISM manufacturing PMI reached 55.6 in July, its strongest level in years, with the Conference Board Leading Economic Index turning positive. These readings reflect stable labor demand and moderate growth supported by AI investment and consumer spending. Risks include further Iran-related energy price spikes that could elevate core PCE inflation above 3% and pressure hiring, or sharper consumer retrenchment if real disposable income weakens.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Market Opened: Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$1,715,353End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productResilient US economic data underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2026. The Sahm Rule remains at -0.03, far below its 0.50 trigger, while the 10Y-2Y yield curve stands positive near +0.47 percentage points and initial claims hover around 199,000. Second-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, unemployment holds near 4.1-4.3%, and the ISM manufacturing PMI reached 55.6 in July, its strongest level in years, with the Conference Board Leading Economic Index turning positive. These readings reflect stable labor demand and moderate growth supported by AI investment and consumer spending. Risks include further Iran-related energy price spikes that could elevate core PCE inflation above 3% and pressure hiring, or sharper consumer retrenchment if real disposable income weakens.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Volume
$1,715,353End Date
Jan 31, 2027Market Opened
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resilient US economic data underpin the 92.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2026. The Sahm Rule remains at -0.03, far below its 0.50 trigger, while the 10Y-2Y yield curve stands positive near +0.47 percentage points and initial claims hover around 199,000. Second-quarter GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, unemployment holds near 4.1-4.3%, and the ISM manufacturing PMI reached 55.6 in July, its strongest level in years, with the Conference Board Leading Economic Index turning positive. These readings reflect stable labor demand and moderate growth supported by AI investment and consumer spending. Risks include further Iran-related energy price spikes that could elevate core PCE inflation above 3% and pressure hiring, or sharper consumer retrenchment if real disposable income weakens.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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