Recent ECB policy actions and inflation projections underpin the 93% market-implied probability of no rate cut in 2026. The Governing Council raised the deposit facility rate 25 basis points to 2.25% in June, citing energy-driven price pressures from Middle East developments that lifted 2026 headline inflation forecasts to 3.0%. Markets now price a 95% chance of another hike at the September 10 meeting, with further tightening possible by year-end if wage and services inflation remain elevated. This data-dependent tightening stance, supported by resilient labor conditions and downward-revised but still positive growth, aligns with traders' capital-backed assessment that policy will hold or rise rather than ease. A sharp de-escalation in energy markets or unexpectedly weak growth could still reopen cut discussions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7% chance
$31,829 Vol.
$31,829 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
7% chance
$31,829 Vol.
$31,829 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent ECB policy actions and inflation projections underpin the 93% market-implied probability of no rate cut in 2026. The Governing Council raised the deposit facility rate 25 basis points to 2.25% in June, citing energy-driven price pressures from Middle East developments that lifted 2026 headline inflation forecasts to 3.0%. Markets now price a 95% chance of another hike at the September 10 meeting, with further tightening possible by year-end if wage and services inflation remain elevated. This data-dependent tightening stance, supported by resilient labor conditions and downward-revised but still positive growth, aligns with traders' capital-backed assessment that policy will hold or rise rather than ease. A sharp de-escalation in energy markets or unexpectedly weak growth could still reopen cut discussions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$31,829End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent ECB policy actions and inflation projections underpin the 93% market-implied probability of no rate cut in 2026. The Governing Council raised the deposit facility rate 25 basis points to 2.25% in June, citing energy-driven price pressures from Middle East developments that lifted 2026 headline inflation forecasts to 3.0%. Markets now price a 95% chance of another hike at the September 10 meeting, with further tightening possible by year-end if wage and services inflation remain elevated. This data-dependent tightening stance, supported by resilient labor conditions and downward-revised but still positive growth, aligns with traders' capital-backed assessment that policy will hold or rise rather than ease. A sharp de-escalation in energy markets or unexpectedly weak growth could still reopen cut discussions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,829End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent ECB policy actions and inflation projections underpin the 93% market-implied probability of no rate cut in 2026. The Governing Council raised the deposit facility rate 25 basis points to 2.25% in June, citing energy-driven price pressures from Middle East developments that lifted 2026 headline inflation forecasts to 3.0%. Markets now price a 95% chance of another hike at the September 10 meeting, with further tightening possible by year-end if wage and services inflation remain elevated. This data-dependent tightening stance, supported by resilient labor conditions and downward-revised but still positive growth, aligns with traders' capital-backed assessment that policy will hold or rise rather than ease. A sharp de-escalation in energy markets or unexpectedly weak growth could still reopen cut discussions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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