**Elaine Pelino leads the Rhode Island Republican primary for governor with strong trader consensus at 86 percent, well ahead of Aaron Guckian at 14.5 percent and negligible shares for Robert Raimondo, Jessica de la Cruz, and Ashley Kalus.** The September 9 primary occurs in a low-turnout environment where recent polling from the University of New Hampshire and Salve Regina University shows Pelino ahead by double digits among likely Republican voters, with sizable undecided shares that have not shifted markedly toward the party-endorsed candidate. Guckian secured the Rhode Island GOP endorsement at the June state convention by a 72-44 delegate vote and brings prior experience as a Carcieri administration aide and 2022 lieutenant governor nominee, yet these factors have not translated into polling gains. Pelino, a political newcomer emphasizing constitutional conservatism, has maintained her edge through consistent survey leads in the final weeks before early voting began on August 20. The other listed candidates have largely withdrawn or registered minimal support, leaving the contest effectively between the two frontrunners. Market pricing reflects trader assessments of these polling trends and primary dynamics rather than guaranteed outcomes.