**Recent polling averages place the SPD at approximately 28.9% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election, with the two most recent surveys (INSA in mid-August and Infratest dimap in early July) both showing 29%.** This positioning underpins the 74.5% implied probability on the Over 28% outcome. The SPD has gained roughly two percentage points over the past three months from lower readings earlier in 2026, reflecting a modest recovery under Minister President Manuela Schwesig as the party campaigns on its record in the current SPD-Linke coalition. AfD support has remained stable near 36%, but the SPD’s upward trend in the final stretch has kept its share above the 28% threshold in weighted averages and the latest fieldwork. No major late-breaking events have disrupted this pattern in the past 30 days. Traders appear to be pricing in the consistency of recent state-level surveys and the limited remaining campaign window, with the outcome hinging on whether the SPD can sustain or extend its recent gains through the remaining weeks. Historical base rates for incumbent parties in German state elections and the observed polling momentum contribute to the current market consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
75% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Over
75% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling averages place the SPD at approximately 28.9% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election, with the two most recent surveys (INSA in mid-August and Infratest dimap in early July) both showing 29%.**
This positioning underpins the 74.5% implied probability on the Over 28% outcome. The SPD has gained roughly two percentage points over the past three months from lower readings earlier in 2026, reflecting a modest recovery under Minister President Manuela Schwesig as the party campaigns on its record in the current SPD-Linke coalition. AfD support has remained stable near 36%, but the SPD’s upward trend in the final stretch has kept its share above the 28% threshold in weighted averages and the latest fieldwork.
No major late-breaking events have disrupted this pattern in the past 30 days. Traders appear to be pricing in the consistency of recent state-level surveys and the limited remaining campaign window, with the outcome hinging on whether the SPD can sustain or extend its recent gains through the remaining weeks. Historical base rates for incumbent parties in German state elections and the observed polling momentum contribute to the current market consensus.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$3,182End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).**Recent polling averages place the SPD at approximately 28.9% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election, with the two most recent surveys (INSA in mid-August and Infratest dimap in early July) both showing 29%.**
This positioning underpins the 74.5% implied probability on the Over 28% outcome. The SPD has gained roughly two percentage points over the past three months from lower readings earlier in 2026, reflecting a modest recovery under Minister President Manuela Schwesig as the party campaigns on its record in the current SPD-Linke coalition. AfD support has remained stable near 36%, but the SPD’s upward trend in the final stretch has kept its share above the 28% threshold in weighted averages and the latest fieldwork.
No major late-breaking events have disrupted this pattern in the past 30 days. Traders appear to be pricing in the consistency of recent state-level surveys and the limited remaining campaign window, with the outcome hinging on whether the SPD can sustain or extend its recent gains through the remaining weeks. Historical base rates for incumbent parties in German state elections and the observed polling momentum contribute to the current market consensus.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if SPD wins at least 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Under” if SPD wins less than 28% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (Landeswahlleiter Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official Mecklenburg-Vorpommern elections page of the Landesamt für innere Verwaltung (www.laiv-mv.de/Wahlen/Landtagswahlen/2026/).
Volume
$3,182End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling averages place the SPD at approximately 28.9% in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern ahead of the September 20, 2026 Landtag election, with the two most recent surveys (INSA in mid-August and Infratest dimap in early July) both showing 29%.** This positioning underpins the 74.5% implied probability on the Over 28% outcome. The SPD has gained roughly two percentage points over the past three months from lower readings earlier in 2026, reflecting a modest recovery under Minister President Manuela Schwesig as the party campaigns on its record in the current SPD-Linke coalition. AfD support has remained stable near 36%, but the SPD’s upward trend in the final stretch has kept its share above the 28% threshold in weighted averages and the latest fieldwork. No major late-breaking events have disrupted this pattern in the past 30 days. Traders appear to be pricing in the consistency of recent state-level surveys and the limited remaining campaign window, with the outcome hinging on whether the SPD can sustain or extend its recent gains through the remaining weeks. Historical base rates for incumbent parties in German state elections and the observed polling momentum contribute to the current market consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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