**Forecast models currently point to a minimum temperature in Munich on August 28 around 15–17 °C, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered because the exact overnight low depends on small differences in radiative cooling, cloud timing, and boundary-layer mixing.** As of the evening of August 27, numerical weather prediction ensembles (including ECMWF and regional models) show the overnight minimum occurring near sunrise on the 28th. Clear to partly cloudy skies early in the night allow surface radiative heat loss, while increasing southwesterly flow and higher humidity limit how far temperatures drop. Dew points near 15–17 °C further cap cooling, as does the risk of scattered clouds or light showers that could reduce net long-wave radiation loss. The 1 °C spread between the leading outcomes (15 °C, 16 °C, 17 °C) reflects genuine uncertainty in how quickly the nocturnal inversion strengthens and whether any residual cloud cover or wind gusts arrive before the coldest hour. Stronger winds or earlier cloud build-up would favor the higher end of that range; calmer, clearer conditions would allow slightly more cooling toward 15 °C or below. Historical climatology shows an average low of roughly 12.8 °C for the date, but the current synoptic pattern—with warmer-than-normal air advection—supports the milder forecast values. Traders are therefore weighting the most recent high-resolution model runs and local observations of wind and cloud trends, as the next update cycle will narrow the range before resolution.