**Forecast consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models points to an overnight minimum of 27–28°C on August 29, 2026, aligning closely with the market's leading implied probabilities (27°C at 44.5%, 26°C at 28.0%, and 28°C at 22.5%).** Persistent humid southerly flow, cloud cover from scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, and light west-to-southwest winds (force 3–4) limit nocturnal radiative cooling under typical late-summer conditions. High dew points near 25–26°C further support minima in this narrow band, consistent with climatological August averages of ~25°C but elevated by ongoing moisture. Official outlooks emphasize mainly cloudy skies with sunny intervals during the day and only isolated storms, keeping temperatures from dropping much below 27°C. No strong cold advection or clear-sky radiative events are anticipated in the next 48 hours, which explains why probabilities cluster tightly around 26–28°C while extremes (below 25°C or 29°C+) remain low-single-digit. Updated model runs or HKO bulletins on the 28th could refine this if cloud trends shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 29?
27°C 44%
26°C 28%
28°C 23%
31°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
22°C or below
4%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
16%
26°C
28%
27°C
44%
28°C
23%
29°C
11%
30°C
11%
31°C
19%
32°C or higher
2%
27°C 44%
26°C 28%
28°C 23%
31°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
22°C or below
$5 Vol.
4%
23°C
$5 Vol.
1%
24°C
$5 Vol.
1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
16%
26°C
$0 Vol.
28%
27°C
$0 Vol.
44%
28°C
$0 Vol.
23%
29°C
$0 Vol.
11%
30°C
$0 Vol.
11%
31°C
$5 Vol.
19%
32°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Forecast consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models points to an overnight minimum of 27–28°C on August 29, 2026, aligning closely with the market's leading implied probabilities (27°C at 44.5%, 26°C at 28.0%, and 28°C at 22.5%).**
Persistent humid southerly flow, cloud cover from scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, and light west-to-southwest winds (force 3–4) limit nocturnal radiative cooling under typical late-summer conditions. High dew points near 25–26°C further support minima in this narrow band, consistent with climatological August averages of ~25°C but elevated by ongoing moisture.
Official outlooks emphasize mainly cloudy skies with sunny intervals during the day and only isolated storms, keeping temperatures from dropping much below 27°C. No strong cold advection or clear-sky radiative events are anticipated in the next 48 hours, which explains why probabilities cluster tightly around 26–28°C while extremes (below 25°C or 29°C+) remain low-single-digit. Updated model runs or HKO bulletins on the 28th could refine this if cloud trends shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Forecast consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models points to an overnight minimum of 27–28°C on August 29, 2026, aligning closely with the market's leading implied probabilities (27°C at 44.5%, 26°C at 28.0%, and 28°C at 22.5%).**
Persistent humid southerly flow, cloud cover from scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, and light west-to-southwest winds (force 3–4) limit nocturnal radiative cooling under typical late-summer conditions. High dew points near 25–26°C further support minima in this narrow band, consistent with climatological August averages of ~25°C but elevated by ongoing moisture.
Official outlooks emphasize mainly cloudy skies with sunny intervals during the day and only isolated storms, keeping temperatures from dropping much below 27°C. No strong cold advection or clear-sky radiative events are anticipated in the next 48 hours, which explains why probabilities cluster tightly around 26–28°C while extremes (below 25°C or 29°C+) remain low-single-digit. Updated model runs or HKO bulletins on the 28th could refine this if cloud trends shift.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$25End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from the Hong Kong Observatory and multiple models points to an overnight minimum of 27–28°C on August 29, 2026, aligning closely with the market's leading implied probabilities (27°C at 44.5%, 26°C at 28.0%, and 28°C at 22.5%).** Persistent humid southerly flow, cloud cover from scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, and light west-to-southwest winds (force 3–4) limit nocturnal radiative cooling under typical late-summer conditions. High dew points near 25–26°C further support minima in this narrow band, consistent with climatological August averages of ~25°C but elevated by ongoing moisture. Official outlooks emphasize mainly cloudy skies with sunny intervals during the day and only isolated storms, keeping temperatures from dropping much below 27°C. No strong cold advection or clear-sky radiative events are anticipated in the next 48 hours, which explains why probabilities cluster tightly around 26–28°C while extremes (below 25°C or 29°C+) remain low-single-digit. Updated model runs or HKO bulletins on the 28th could refine this if cloud trends shift.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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