The market's overwhelming 100% implied probability for 25°C as Toronto's highest temperature on August 25 stems from official post-event observations by Environment and Climate Change Canada, which recorded a daily maximum of exactly that value at Pearson International Airport and nearby stations. Late-summer conditions featured typical diurnal heating without anomalous warm advection or urban heat island amplification pushing readings higher. This resolution threshold aligns with verified station data rather than forecasts, giving traders high confidence in the outcome. Minor adjustments remain possible only if final quality-controlled datasets reveal sensor calibration issues, though such revisions are uncommon for daily maxima at this scale.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Toronto on August 25?
Highest temperature in Toronto on August 25?
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$50,241 Vol.
$50,241 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
25°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$50,241 Vol.
$50,241 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
19°C or below
$310 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,639 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,478 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$3,392 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$5,164 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$10,113 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$12,132 Vol.
100%
26°C
$7,409 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$5,739 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,528 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$335 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's overwhelming 100% implied probability for 25°C as Toronto's highest temperature on August 25 stems from official post-event observations by Environment and Climate Change Canada, which recorded a daily maximum of exactly that value at Pearson International Airport and nearby stations. Late-summer conditions featured typical diurnal heating without anomalous warm advection or urban heat island amplification pushing readings higher. This resolution threshold aligns with verified station data rather than forecasts, giving traders high confidence in the outcome. Minor adjustments remain possible only if final quality-controlled datasets reveal sensor calibration issues, though such revisions are uncommon for daily maxima at this scale.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Volume
$50,241End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's overwhelming 100% implied probability for 25°C as Toronto's highest temperature on August 25 stems from official post-event observations by Environment and Climate Change Canada, which recorded a daily maximum of exactly that value at Pearson International Airport and nearby stations. Late-summer conditions featured typical diurnal heating without anomalous warm advection or urban heat island amplification pushing readings higher. This resolution threshold aligns with verified station data rather than forecasts, giving traders high confidence in the outcome. Minor adjustments remain possible only if final quality-controlled datasets reveal sensor calibration issues, though such revisions are uncommon for daily maxima at this scale.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$50,241End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 8:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market's overwhelming 100% implied probability for 25°C as Toronto's highest temperature on August 25 stems from official post-event observations by Environment and Climate Change Canada, which recorded a daily maximum of exactly that value at Pearson International Airport and nearby stations. Late-summer conditions featured typical diurnal heating without anomalous warm advection or urban heat island amplification pushing readings higher. This resolution threshold aligns with verified station data rather than forecasts, giving traders high confidence in the outcome. Minor adjustments remain possible only if final quality-controlled datasets reveal sensor calibration issues, though such revisions are uncommon for daily maxima at this scale.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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