Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing 1.5% annualized growth, down from 2.1% in Q1, has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.5% range, with market-implied odds split closely at 38% for 2.0–2.5% and 35.4% for 1.5–2.0%. Fiscal boosts from the 2025 reconciliation act support consumer spending and investment, while tariffs, slower labor-force growth from immigration policy, and a softening jobs market with unemployment near 4.5% create offsetting headwinds. Professional forecasts cluster near 2.0–2.2%, reflecting resilience in AI-driven capital expenditure amid moderating inflation pressures. Key upcoming Q3 data and FOMC communications on rate paths will likely determine whether growth sustains above or slips below 2%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
2.0–2.5% 38%
1.5–2.0% 35.4%
>2.5% 17%
1.0–1.5% 8.0%
$58,514 Vol.
$58,514 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
3%
1.0–1.5%
8%
1.5–2.0%
35%
2.0–2.5%
38%
>2.5%
17%
2.0–2.5% 38%
1.5–2.0% 35.4%
>2.5% 17%
1.0–1.5% 8.0%
$58,514 Vol.
$58,514 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
$7,556 Vol.
3%
0.5–1.0%
$17,293 Vol.
3%
1.0–1.5%
$3,825 Vol.
8%
1.5–2.0%
$6,690 Vol.
35%
2.0–2.5%
$7,139 Vol.
38%
>2.5%
$16,011 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing 1.5% annualized growth, down from 2.1% in Q1, has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.5% range, with market-implied odds split closely at 38% for 2.0–2.5% and 35.4% for 1.5–2.0%. Fiscal boosts from the 2025 reconciliation act support consumer spending and investment, while tariffs, slower labor-force growth from immigration policy, and a softening jobs market with unemployment near 4.5% create offsetting headwinds. Professional forecasts cluster near 2.0–2.2%, reflecting resilience in AI-driven capital expenditure amid moderating inflation pressures. Key upcoming Q3 data and FOMC communications on rate paths will likely determine whether growth sustains above or slips below 2%.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$58,514End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing 1.5% annualized growth, down from 2.1% in Q1, has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.5% range, with market-implied odds split closely at 38% for 2.0–2.5% and 35.4% for 1.5–2.0%. Fiscal boosts from the 2025 reconciliation act support consumer spending and investment, while tariffs, slower labor-force growth from immigration policy, and a softening jobs market with unemployment near 4.5% create offsetting headwinds. Professional forecasts cluster near 2.0–2.2%, reflecting resilience in AI-driven capital expenditure amid moderating inflation pressures. Key upcoming Q3 data and FOMC communications on rate paths will likely determine whether growth sustains above or slips below 2%.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$58,514End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showing 1.5% annualized growth, down from 2.1% in Q1, has anchored trader sentiment around the 1.5–2.5% range, with market-implied odds split closely at 38% for 2.0–2.5% and 35.4% for 1.5–2.0%. Fiscal boosts from the 2025 reconciliation act support consumer spending and investment, while tariffs, slower labor-force growth from immigration policy, and a softening jobs market with unemployment near 4.5% create offsetting headwinds. Professional forecasts cluster near 2.0–2.2%, reflecting resilience in AI-driven capital expenditure amid moderating inflation pressures. Key upcoming Q3 data and FOMC communications on rate paths will likely determine whether growth sustains above or slips below 2%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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