Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts position 2026 real GDP growth near 2.1–2.3 percent, with AI-related business investment providing the main offset to softer consumer spending amid affordability pressures and policy shifts. First-quarter growth reached 2.0–2.1 percent annualized before moderating to 1.5 percent in Q2, reflecting a transition toward capex-led expansion while tariffs and tighter immigration policies weigh on labor supply and net exports. Professional forecasters cite resilient corporate spending on productivity-enhancing technologies alongside cooling payroll gains and unemployment near 4.2–4.4 percent as key swing factors. With 1.5–2.0 percent and 2.0–2.5 percent brackets nearly tied in market-implied odds, traders are pricing uncertainty over whether fiscal tailwinds and AI outlays can sustain above-trend expansion or if sticky core inflation near 2.5–3.4 percent and labor-market softening will pull results lower. Upcoming releases on employment, CPI, and Federal Reserve communications remain central to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
2.0–2.5% 38%
1.5–2.0% 35.4%
>2.5% 16%
1.0–1.5% 7.8%
$58,514 Vol.
$58,514 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
4%
0.5–1.0%
3%
1.0–1.5%
8%
1.5–2.0%
35%
2.0–2.5%
38%
>2.5%
16%
2.0–2.5% 38%
1.5–2.0% 35.4%
>2.5% 16%
1.0–1.5% 7.8%
$58,514 Vol.
$58,514 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
<0.5%
$7,556 Vol.
4%
0.5–1.0%
$17,293 Vol.
3%
1.0–1.5%
$3,825 Vol.
8%
1.5–2.0%
$6,690 Vol.
35%
2.0–2.5%
$7,139 Vol.
38%
>2.5%
$16,011 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts position 2026 real GDP growth near 2.1–2.3 percent, with AI-related business investment providing the main offset to softer consumer spending amid affordability pressures and policy shifts. First-quarter growth reached 2.0–2.1 percent annualized before moderating to 1.5 percent in Q2, reflecting a transition toward capex-led expansion while tariffs and tighter immigration policies weigh on labor supply and net exports. Professional forecasters cite resilient corporate spending on productivity-enhancing technologies alongside cooling payroll gains and unemployment near 4.2–4.4 percent as key swing factors. With 1.5–2.0 percent and 2.0–2.5 percent brackets nearly tied in market-implied odds, traders are pricing uncertainty over whether fiscal tailwinds and AI outlays can sustain above-trend expansion or if sticky core inflation near 2.5–3.4 percent and labor-market softening will pull results lower. Upcoming releases on employment, CPI, and Federal Reserve communications remain central to resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$58,514End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts position 2026 real GDP growth near 2.1–2.3 percent, with AI-related business investment providing the main offset to softer consumer spending amid affordability pressures and policy shifts. First-quarter growth reached 2.0–2.1 percent annualized before moderating to 1.5 percent in Q2, reflecting a transition toward capex-led expansion while tariffs and tighter immigration policies weigh on labor supply and net exports. Professional forecasters cite resilient corporate spending on productivity-enhancing technologies alongside cooling payroll gains and unemployment near 4.2–4.4 percent as key swing factors. With 1.5–2.0 percent and 2.0–2.5 percent brackets nearly tied in market-implied odds, traders are pricing uncertainty over whether fiscal tailwinds and AI outlays can sustain above-trend expansion or if sticky core inflation near 2.5–3.4 percent and labor-market softening will pull results lower. Upcoming releases on employment, CPI, and Federal Reserve communications remain central to resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$58,514End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts position 2026 real GDP growth near 2.1–2.3 percent, with AI-related business investment providing the main offset to softer consumer spending amid affordability pressures and policy shifts. First-quarter growth reached 2.0–2.1 percent annualized before moderating to 1.5 percent in Q2, reflecting a transition toward capex-led expansion while tariffs and tighter immigration policies weigh on labor supply and net exports. Professional forecasters cite resilient corporate spending on productivity-enhancing technologies alongside cooling payroll gains and unemployment near 4.2–4.4 percent as key swing factors. With 1.5–2.0 percent and 2.0–2.5 percent brackets nearly tied in market-implied odds, traders are pricing uncertainty over whether fiscal tailwinds and AI outlays can sustain above-trend expansion or if sticky core inflation near 2.5–3.4 percent and labor-market softening will pull results lower. Upcoming releases on employment, CPI, and Federal Reserve communications remain central to resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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