Recent July Core PCE data showed a 0.2% month-over-month rise matching consensus, with the annual core rate holding at 3.3% well above the Fed’s 2% target and headline PCE at 3.7%. This outcome, alongside softer CPI prints and mixed labor signals, has kept trader expectations for the August release closely split, with 0.2% and 0.3% outcomes each commanding roughly 37% implied probability. Persistent services and housing inflation components continue to limit downside risks, while cooling goods prices and moderating consumer spending support the case for stability near 0.2%. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming August CPI and employment reports remain key swing factors that could shift the narrow distribution ahead of the late-September PCE release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.2% 38%
0.3% 37%
0.1% 12%
0.5%+ 8.2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
≤-0.1%
2%
0.0%
6%
0.1%
12%
0.2%
38%
0.3%
37%
0.4%
8%
0.5%+
8%
0.2% 38%
0.3% 37%
0.1% 12%
0.5%+ 8.2%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
≤-0.1%
$37 Vol.
2%
0.0%
$37 Vol.
6%
0.1%
$57 Vol.
12%
0.2%
$582 Vol.
38%
0.3%
$457 Vol.
37%
0.4%
$110 Vol.
8%
0.5%+
$73 Vol.
8%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July Core PCE data showed a 0.2% month-over-month rise matching consensus, with the annual core rate holding at 3.3% well above the Fed’s 2% target and headline PCE at 3.7%. This outcome, alongside softer CPI prints and mixed labor signals, has kept trader expectations for the August release closely split, with 0.2% and 0.3% outcomes each commanding roughly 37% implied probability. Persistent services and housing inflation components continue to limit downside risks, while cooling goods prices and moderating consumer spending support the case for stability near 0.2%. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming August CPI and employment reports remain key swing factors that could shift the narrow distribution ahead of the late-September PCE release.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$1,353End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent July Core PCE data showed a 0.2% month-over-month rise matching consensus, with the annual core rate holding at 3.3% well above the Fed’s 2% target and headline PCE at 3.7%. This outcome, alongside softer CPI prints and mixed labor signals, has kept trader expectations for the August release closely split, with 0.2% and 0.3% outcomes each commanding roughly 37% implied probability. Persistent services and housing inflation components continue to limit downside risks, while cooling goods prices and moderating consumer spending support the case for stability near 0.2%. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming August CPI and employment reports remain key swing factors that could shift the narrow distribution ahead of the late-September PCE release.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending August 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for August 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on September 30, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$1,353End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July Core PCE data showed a 0.2% month-over-month rise matching consensus, with the annual core rate holding at 3.3% well above the Fed’s 2% target and headline PCE at 3.7%. This outcome, alongside softer CPI prints and mixed labor signals, has kept trader expectations for the August release closely split, with 0.2% and 0.3% outcomes each commanding roughly 37% implied probability. Persistent services and housing inflation components continue to limit downside risks, while cooling goods prices and moderating consumer spending support the case for stability near 0.2%. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming August CPI and employment reports remain key swing factors that could shift the narrow distribution ahead of the late-September PCE release.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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