Recent fiscal pressures, including debt surpassing $40 trillion and persistent deficits, prompted Moody’s May 2025 downgrade of U.S. long-term ratings to Aa1 from Aaa, aligning it with prior moves by S&P and Fitch. Since then, the major agencies have maintained stable or negative outlooks without further sovereign downgrades through mid-2026, with Fitch affirming its AA+ rating in August 2026. Traders assign an 89% implied probability to no additional downgrade before 2027, reflecting the absence of new credit actions amid ongoing congressional budget debates and the typical multi-year lag between major fiscal developments and ratings changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnother US debt downgrade before 2027?
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
11% chance
$12,821 Vol.
$12,821 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
11% chance
$12,821 Vol.
$12,821 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent fiscal pressures, including debt surpassing $40 trillion and persistent deficits, prompted Moody’s May 2025 downgrade of U.S. long-term ratings to Aa1 from Aaa, aligning it with prior moves by S&P and Fitch. Since then, the major agencies have maintained stable or negative outlooks without further sovereign downgrades through mid-2026, with Fitch affirming its AA+ rating in August 2026. Traders assign an 89% implied probability to no additional downgrade before 2027, reflecting the absence of new credit actions amid ongoing congressional budget debates and the typical multi-year lag between major fiscal developments and ratings changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
Volume
$12,821End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent fiscal pressures, including debt surpassing $40 trillion and persistent deficits, prompted Moody’s May 2025 downgrade of U.S. long-term ratings to Aa1 from Aaa, aligning it with prior moves by S&P and Fitch. Since then, the major agencies have maintained stable or negative outlooks without further sovereign downgrades through mid-2026, with Fitch affirming its AA+ rating in August 2026. Traders assign an 89% implied probability to no additional downgrade before 2027, reflecting the absence of new credit actions amid ongoing congressional budget debates and the typical multi-year lag between major fiscal developments and ratings changes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$12,821End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent fiscal pressures, including debt surpassing $40 trillion and persistent deficits, prompted Moody’s May 2025 downgrade of U.S. long-term ratings to Aa1 from Aaa, aligning it with prior moves by S&P and Fitch. Since then, the major agencies have maintained stable or negative outlooks without further sovereign downgrades through mid-2026, with Fitch affirming its AA+ rating in August 2026. Traders assign an 89% implied probability to no additional downgrade before 2027, reflecting the absence of new credit actions amid ongoing congressional budget debates and the typical multi-year lag between major fiscal developments and ratings changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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