AfD leads polls by wide margins in Saxony-Anhalt (around 41-42%) and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (around 36%), positioning it to secure the most seats in both eastern states on September 6 and 20, respectively, while trailing substantially in Berlin at roughly 17-18%. Recent surveys through late August confirm these trends without major reversals, reflecting sustained regional backing in the former East amid national concerns over immigration, the economy, and the federal coalition's performance. The 5% threshold and seat allocation mechanics could amplify AfD pluralities in the east if smaller parties fall short, yet Berlin's more fragmented contest favors other parties. Traders price 2 outcomes at 85% as the most probable result under current polling and firewall dynamics among mainstream parties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2 85%
3 10.5%
1 5.9%
0 <1%
$66,193 Vol.
$66,193 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
<1%
1
6%
2
85%
3
10%
2 85%
3 10.5%
1 5.9%
0 <1%
$66,193 Vol.
$66,193 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$6,706 Vol.
<1%
1
$15,029 Vol.
6%
2
$26,050 Vol.
85%
3
$18,408 Vol.
10%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market. AfD leads polls by wide margins in Saxony-Anhalt (around 41-42%) and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (around 36%), positioning it to secure the most seats in both eastern states on September 6 and 20, respectively, while trailing substantially in Berlin at roughly 17-18%. Recent surveys through late August confirm these trends without major reversals, reflecting sustained regional backing in the former East amid national concerns over immigration, the economy, and the federal coalition's performance. The 5% threshold and seat allocation mechanics could amplify AfD pluralities in the east if smaller parties fall short, yet Berlin's more fragmented contest favors other parties. Traders price 2 outcomes at 85% as the most probable result under current polling and firewall dynamics among mainstream parties.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
Market Opened: Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$66,193End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market. AfD leads polls by wide margins in Saxony-Anhalt (around 41-42%) and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (around 36%), positioning it to secure the most seats in both eastern states on September 6 and 20, respectively, while trailing substantially in Berlin at roughly 17-18%. Recent surveys through late August confirm these trends without major reversals, reflecting sustained regional backing in the former East amid national concerns over immigration, the economy, and the federal coalition's performance. The 5% threshold and seat allocation mechanics could amplify AfD pluralities in the east if smaller parties fall short, yet Berlin's more fragmented contest favors other parties. Traders price 2 outcomes at 85% as the most probable result under current polling and firewall dynamics among mainstream parties.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
Volume
$66,193End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 6, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...AfD leads polls by wide margins in Saxony-Anhalt (around 41-42%) and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (around 36%), positioning it to secure the most seats in both eastern states on September 6 and 20, respectively, while trailing substantially in Berlin at roughly 17-18%. Recent surveys through late August confirm these trends without major reversals, reflecting sustained regional backing in the former East amid national concerns over immigration, the economy, and the federal coalition's performance. The 5% threshold and seat allocation mechanics could amplify AfD pluralities in the east if smaller parties fall short, yet Berlin's more fragmented contest favors other parties. Traders price 2 outcomes at 85% as the most probable result under current polling and firewall dynamics among mainstream parties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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