Prolonged drought and record-low precipitation across the Danube basin since spring have driven water levels to historic lows at multiple gauges, including Budapest and sections in Bulgaria and Ukraine, with navigation restrictions persisting into late August 2026. Minor fluctuations and slight rises at isolated points have not produced meaningful recovery, while forecasts point to continued deficits through early fall absent substantial rainfall. Trader consensus favors October 1–31 as the leading window because seasonal cooling and potential autumn rains historically allow rebounds within weeks once deficits ease, though the severity of this year’s early and extended low-water period supports elevated odds for mid-to-late September or failure to normalize by November 1.