Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have narrowed to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with the trailing twelve-month total through June at roughly $743 billion, reflecting post-tariff normalization after 2025 front-loading of imports. Persistent factors supporting an 800–900 billion annual outcome include resilient domestic demand, AI-driven capital goods imports from key partners such as Mexico and Taiwan, and a strong dollar that favors inflows, partially offset by commodity export gains in energy and gold that appear to be fading. The administration’s effective tariff rate near 11 percent has slowed the prior rapid widening without reversing the structural savings-investment gap, while the services surplus provides a modest buffer. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with first-half 2026 data and forward-looking adjustments for steady GDP growth near 2 percent, with limited near-term catalysts expected to alter the range before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
9%
700–800B
28%
800–900B
43%
900B–1T
15%
1T–1.1T
5%
1.1T+
5%
$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
$16,848 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
9%
700–800B
$670 Vol.
28%
800–900B
$1,519 Vol.
43%
900B–1T
$1,397 Vol.
15%
1T–1.1T
$1,458 Vol.
5%
1.1T+
$1,119 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have narrowed to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with the trailing twelve-month total through June at roughly $743 billion, reflecting post-tariff normalization after 2025 front-loading of imports. Persistent factors supporting an 800–900 billion annual outcome include resilient domestic demand, AI-driven capital goods imports from key partners such as Mexico and Taiwan, and a strong dollar that favors inflows, partially offset by commodity export gains in energy and gold that appear to be fading. The administration’s effective tariff rate near 11 percent has slowed the prior rapid widening without reversing the structural savings-investment gap, while the services surplus provides a modest buffer. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with first-half 2026 data and forward-looking adjustments for steady GDP growth near 2 percent, with limited near-term catalysts expected to alter the range before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Market Opened: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$24,009End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have narrowed to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with the trailing twelve-month total through June at roughly $743 billion, reflecting post-tariff normalization after 2025 front-loading of imports. Persistent factors supporting an 800–900 billion annual outcome include resilient domestic demand, AI-driven capital goods imports from key partners such as Mexico and Taiwan, and a strong dollar that favors inflows, partially offset by commodity export gains in energy and gold that appear to be fading. The administration’s effective tariff rate near 11 percent has slowed the prior rapid widening without reversing the structural savings-investment gap, while the services surplus provides a modest buffer. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with first-half 2026 data and forward-looking adjustments for steady GDP growth near 2 percent, with limited near-term catalysts expected to alter the range before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volume
$24,009End Date
Feb 28, 2027Market Opened
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. goods and services trade deficits have narrowed to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with the trailing twelve-month total through June at roughly $743 billion, reflecting post-tariff normalization after 2025 front-loading of imports. Persistent factors supporting an 800–900 billion annual outcome include resilient domestic demand, AI-driven capital goods imports from key partners such as Mexico and Taiwan, and a strong dollar that favors inflows, partially offset by commodity export gains in energy and gold that appear to be fading. The administration’s effective tariff rate near 11 percent has slowed the prior rapid widening without reversing the structural savings-investment gap, while the services surplus provides a modest buffer. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with first-half 2026 data and forward-looking adjustments for steady GDP growth near 2 percent, with limited near-term catalysts expected to alter the range before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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