Mexico's headline inflation has decelerated steadily through mid-2026, with the July annual rate at 3.12% and the first-half August reading at 3.26%, both well inside Banxico's 2-4% target band and at multi-year lows. The decline reflects subdued energy costs, lower food prices, and a stable peso, while core inflation has eased more gradually to around 3.9%. Analyst forecasts for the 2026 calendar average cluster near 3.8-3.9%, though some models project convergence toward 3.0% by year-end. With Banxico holding its policy rate at 6.50% amid lingering upside risks from services and global factors, trader positioning on Polymarket reflects expectations that the full-year figure will settle in the upper-3% to low-4% range, consistent with the current trajectory and limited near-term catalysts for sharper disinflation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.50% to 3.99% 34.0%
4.00% to 4.49% 22%
3.00% to 3.49% 20.8%
2.50% to 2.99% 7.6%
$65,195 Vol.
$65,195 Vol.
Jan 7, 2027
<2.50%
2%
2.50% to 2.99%
8%
3.00% to 3.49%
21%
3.50% to 3.99%
35%
4.00% to 4.49%
22%
4.50% to 4.99%
8%
5.00% to 5.49%
4%
5.50%+
3%
3.50% to 3.99% 34.0%
4.00% to 4.49% 22%
3.00% to 3.49% 20.8%
2.50% to 2.99% 7.6%
$65,195 Vol.
$65,195 Vol.
Jan 7, 2027
<2.50%
$1,111 Vol.
2%
2.50% to 2.99%
$4,895 Vol.
8%
3.00% to 3.49%
$28,700 Vol.
21%
3.50% to 3.99%
$4,085 Vol.
35%
4.00% to 4.49%
$12,883 Vol.
22%
4.50% to 4.99%
$4,755 Vol.
8%
5.00% to 5.49%
$2,454 Vol.
4%
5.50%+
$6,313 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioMexico's headline inflation has decelerated steadily through mid-2026, with the July annual rate at 3.12% and the first-half August reading at 3.26%, both well inside Banxico's 2-4% target band and at multi-year lows. The decline reflects subdued energy costs, lower food prices, and a stable peso, while core inflation has eased more gradually to around 3.9%. Analyst forecasts for the 2026 calendar average cluster near 3.8-3.9%, though some models project convergence toward 3.0% by year-end. With Banxico holding its policy rate at 6.50% amid lingering upside risks from services and global factors, trader positioning on Polymarket reflects expectations that the full-year figure will settle in the upper-3% to low-4% range, consistent with the current trajectory and limited near-term catalysts for sharper disinflation.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$65,195End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioMexico's headline inflation has decelerated steadily through mid-2026, with the July annual rate at 3.12% and the first-half August reading at 3.26%, both well inside Banxico's 2-4% target band and at multi-year lows. The decline reflects subdued energy costs, lower food prices, and a stable peso, while core inflation has eased more gradually to around 3.9%. Analyst forecasts for the 2026 calendar average cluster near 3.8-3.9%, though some models project convergence toward 3.0% by year-end. With Banxico holding its policy rate at 6.50% amid lingering upside risks from services and global factors, trader positioning on Polymarket reflects expectations that the full-year figure will settle in the upper-3% to low-4% range, consistent with the current trajectory and limited near-term catalysts for sharper disinflation.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$65,195End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Mexico's headline inflation has decelerated steadily through mid-2026, with the July annual rate at 3.12% and the first-half August reading at 3.26%, both well inside Banxico's 2-4% target band and at multi-year lows. The decline reflects subdued energy costs, lower food prices, and a stable peso, while core inflation has eased more gradually to around 3.9%. Analyst forecasts for the 2026 calendar average cluster near 3.8-3.9%, though some models project convergence toward 3.0% by year-end. With Banxico holding its policy rate at 6.50% amid lingering upside risks from services and global factors, trader positioning on Polymarket reflects expectations that the full-year figure will settle in the upper-3% to low-4% range, consistent with the current trajectory and limited near-term catalysts for sharper disinflation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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