Recent forecast consensus from agencies including MetService and international models positions Wellington's overnight low on August 25 at 12°C under northwest winds of 30–40 km/h and partly cloudy skies, driving the 96.5% market-implied probability. This reflects consistent guidance showing minimum temperatures holding near 12°C through the night, aligned with seasonal norms for late winter in the region where typical August lows range 8–12°C. Stronger model agreement on stable conditions and limited cloud cover reducing radiative cooling supports the tight trader consensus. A rapid shift in steering flow or unexpected clear-sky intensification could allow readings to dip to 11°C or lower, though current observations and short-range guidance indicate low likelihood of such deviation before midnight local time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 25?
12°C 100.0%
11°C 1.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
$4,319 Vol.
$4,319 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
8°C or below
No
9°C
No
10°C
No
11°C
No
12°C
Yes
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C or higher
No
12°C 100.0%
11°C 1.0%
8°C or below <1%
9°C <1%
$4,319 Vol.
$4,319 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
8°C or below
$376 Vol.
No
9°C
$297 Vol.
No
10°C
$250 Vol.
No
11°C
$68 Vol.
No
12°C
$302 Vol.
Yes
13°C
$401 Vol.
No
14°C
$265 Vol.
No
15°C
$893 Vol.
No
16°C
$205 Vol.
No
17°C
$733 Vol.
No
18°C or higher
$528 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from agencies including MetService and international models positions Wellington's overnight low on August 25 at 12°C under northwest winds of 30–40 km/h and partly cloudy skies, driving the 96.5% market-implied probability. This reflects consistent guidance showing minimum temperatures holding near 12°C through the night, aligned with seasonal norms for late winter in the region where typical August lows range 8–12°C. Stronger model agreement on stable conditions and limited cloud cover reducing radiative cooling supports the tight trader consensus. A rapid shift in steering flow or unexpected clear-sky intensification could allow readings to dip to 11°C or lower, though current observations and short-range guidance indicate low likelihood of such deviation before midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$4,319End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from agencies including MetService and international models positions Wellington's overnight low on August 25 at 12°C under northwest winds of 30–40 km/h and partly cloudy skies, driving the 96.5% market-implied probability. This reflects consistent guidance showing minimum temperatures holding near 12°C through the night, aligned with seasonal norms for late winter in the region where typical August lows range 8–12°C. Stronger model agreement on stable conditions and limited cloud cover reducing radiative cooling supports the tight trader consensus. A rapid shift in steering flow or unexpected clear-sky intensification could allow readings to dip to 11°C or lower, though current observations and short-range guidance indicate low likelihood of such deviation before midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,319End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent forecast consensus from agencies including MetService and international models positions Wellington's overnight low on August 25 at 12°C under northwest winds of 30–40 km/h and partly cloudy skies, driving the 96.5% market-implied probability. This reflects consistent guidance showing minimum temperatures holding near 12°C through the night, aligned with seasonal norms for late winter in the region where typical August lows range 8–12°C. Stronger model agreement on stable conditions and limited cloud cover reducing radiative cooling supports the tight trader consensus. A rapid shift in steering flow or unexpected clear-sky intensification could allow readings to dip to 11°C or lower, though current observations and short-range guidance indicate low likelihood of such deviation before midnight local time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions