Recent European forecast models, including outputs from Météo-France and the GFS, indicate a mild southerly flow with persistent cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, anchoring the overnight minimum near 17°C in Paris on August 25. This consensus aligns with observed trends, where temperatures have held in the upper teens Celsius through the evening amid light winds and elevated humidity. The 99% market-implied probability for exactly 17°C reflects traders' assessment of model agreement and historical August norms, where such values fall within typical variability. A realistic shift would require unforecasted clearing skies or an unexpected northerly surge to push readings below 16°C before dawn, though current steering patterns make this improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 25?
17°C 99.5%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$6,240 Vol.
$6,240 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
17°C 99.5%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$6,240 Vol.
$6,240 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
12°C or below
$279 Vol.
No
13°C
$326 Vol.
No
14°C
$244 Vol.
No
15°C
$715 Vol.
No
16°C
$744 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,558 Vol.
Yes
18°C
$1,049 Vol.
No
19°C
$542 Vol.
No
20°C
$272 Vol.
No
21°C
$328 Vol.
No
22°C or higher
$184 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European forecast models, including outputs from Météo-France and the GFS, indicate a mild southerly flow with persistent cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, anchoring the overnight minimum near 17°C in Paris on August 25. This consensus aligns with observed trends, where temperatures have held in the upper teens Celsius through the evening amid light winds and elevated humidity. The 99% market-implied probability for exactly 17°C reflects traders' assessment of model agreement and historical August norms, where such values fall within typical variability. A realistic shift would require unforecasted clearing skies or an unexpected northerly surge to push readings below 16°C before dawn, though current steering patterns make this improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$6,240End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent European forecast models, including outputs from Météo-France and the GFS, indicate a mild southerly flow with persistent cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, anchoring the overnight minimum near 17°C in Paris on August 25. This consensus aligns with observed trends, where temperatures have held in the upper teens Celsius through the evening amid light winds and elevated humidity. The 99% market-implied probability for exactly 17°C reflects traders' assessment of model agreement and historical August norms, where such values fall within typical variability. A realistic shift would require unforecasted clearing skies or an unexpected northerly surge to push readings below 16°C before dawn, though current steering patterns make this improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,240End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent European forecast models, including outputs from Météo-France and the GFS, indicate a mild southerly flow with persistent cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, anchoring the overnight minimum near 17°C in Paris on August 25. This consensus aligns with observed trends, where temperatures have held in the upper teens Celsius through the evening amid light winds and elevated humidity. The 99% market-implied probability for exactly 17°C reflects traders' assessment of model agreement and historical August norms, where such values fall within typical variability. A realistic shift would require unforecasted clearing skies or an unexpected northerly surge to push readings below 16°C before dawn, though current steering patterns make this improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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