**Recent high-resolution model runs and surface observations from Munich stations show the daily minimum temperature stabilizing near 12°C overnight under clear to partly cloudy skies and light easterly flow.** This setup promotes efficient radiational cooling after daytime highs reached the mid-20s °C, with dew points around 15–16°C limiting further drop while preventing frost. Historical climatology for late August places the average low near 13°C, making the current pattern align closely with the lower end of the envelope. Trader consensus at 99% implied probability for 12°C reflects convergence across GFS, ECMWF, and local METAR data, with minimal dispersion in ensemble members. A sudden increase in cloud cover, stronger winds, or an unexpected warm advection from the south could raise the minimum by 1–2°C and shift odds, though such changes appear unlikely given the entrenched high-pressure ridge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Munich on August 26?
12°C 99%
11°C 14%
10°C 13%
8°C or below 12%
$7,068 Vol.
$7,068 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
8°C or below
12%
9°C
1%
10°C
13%
11°C
14%
12°C
99%
13°C
1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C or higher
<1%
12°C 99%
11°C 14%
10°C 13%
8°C or below 12%
$7,068 Vol.
$7,068 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
8°C or below
$23 Vol.
12%
9°C
$35 Vol.
1%
10°C
$118 Vol.
13%
11°C
$127 Vol.
14%
12°C
$316 Vol.
99%
13°C
$606 Vol.
1%
14°C
$3,609 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$596 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$175 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
18°C or higher
$1,428 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent high-resolution model runs and surface observations from Munich stations show the daily minimum temperature stabilizing near 12°C overnight under clear to partly cloudy skies and light easterly flow.** This setup promotes efficient radiational cooling after daytime highs reached the mid-20s °C, with dew points around 15–16°C limiting further drop while preventing frost. Historical climatology for late August places the average low near 13°C, making the current pattern align closely with the lower end of the envelope. Trader consensus at 99% implied probability for 12°C reflects convergence across GFS, ECMWF, and local METAR data, with minimal dispersion in ensemble members. A sudden increase in cloud cover, stronger winds, or an unexpected warm advection from the south could raise the minimum by 1–2°C and shift odds, though such changes appear unlikely given the entrenched high-pressure ridge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$7,068End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent high-resolution model runs and surface observations from Munich stations show the daily minimum temperature stabilizing near 12°C overnight under clear to partly cloudy skies and light easterly flow.** This setup promotes efficient radiational cooling after daytime highs reached the mid-20s °C, with dew points around 15–16°C limiting further drop while preventing frost. Historical climatology for late August places the average low near 13°C, making the current pattern align closely with the lower end of the envelope. Trader consensus at 99% implied probability for 12°C reflects convergence across GFS, ECMWF, and local METAR data, with minimal dispersion in ensemble members. A sudden increase in cloud cover, stronger winds, or an unexpected warm advection from the south could raise the minimum by 1–2°C and shift odds, though such changes appear unlikely given the entrenched high-pressure ridge.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,068End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent high-resolution model runs and surface observations from Munich stations show the daily minimum temperature stabilizing near 12°C overnight under clear to partly cloudy skies and light easterly flow.** This setup promotes efficient radiational cooling after daytime highs reached the mid-20s °C, with dew points around 15–16°C limiting further drop while preventing frost. Historical climatology for late August places the average low near 13°C, making the current pattern align closely with the lower end of the envelope. Trader consensus at 99% implied probability for 12°C reflects convergence across GFS, ECMWF, and local METAR data, with minimal dispersion in ensemble members. A sudden increase in cloud cover, stronger winds, or an unexpected warm advection from the south could raise the minimum by 1–2°C and shift odds, though such changes appear unlikely given the entrenched high-pressure ridge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions