**Persistent warm, humid air mass and typical late-summer conditions in South Florida are anchoring trader expectations for Miami’s overnight low on August 30 near the upper 70s to low 80s.** Official National Weather Service and private model guidance issued August 29 consistently project lows of 79–83 °F under partly cloudy skies with easterly winds of 5–15 mph and dew points remaining in the upper 70s to low 80s. These factors limit radiational cooling, keeping the minimum temperature from dropping below the historical August average of roughly 79–82 °F. The tight clustering around the 78–81 °F outcomes (combined ~65 % market-implied probability) reflects model agreement on modest overnight mixing and continued moisture advection from the Atlantic. Brief thunderstorm activity possible in the evening could produce localized cooling of a degree or two, but broad subsidence and high heat content in surrounding waters are expected to prevent deeper drops. Lower-probability outcomes below 77 °F would require an unexpected influx of drier air or stronger winds, while readings above 83 °F would need sustained cloud cover or additional moisture preventing any nocturnal dip. Updated NWS forecast discussions and morning model runs on August 30 will provide the final data points before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Miami on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Miami on August 30?
80-81°F 35%
78-79°F 30%
82-83°F 27%
76-77°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
73°F or below
2%
74-75°F
8%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
30%
80-81°F
35%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
4%
86-87°F
9%
88-89°F
1%
90-91°F
<1%
92°F or higher
<1%
80-81°F 35%
78-79°F 30%
82-83°F 27%
76-77°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
73°F or below
$124 Vol.
2%
74-75°F
$164 Vol.
8%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
11%
78-79°F
$56 Vol.
30%
80-81°F
$24 Vol.
35%
82-83°F
$252 Vol.
26%
84-85°F
$305 Vol.
4%
86-87°F
$76 Vol.
9%
88-89°F
$35 Vol.
1%
90-91°F
$55 Vol.
<1%
92°F or higher
$30 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent warm, humid air mass and typical late-summer conditions in South Florida are anchoring trader expectations for Miami’s overnight low on August 30 near the upper 70s to low 80s.** Official National Weather Service and private model guidance issued August 29 consistently project lows of 79–83 °F under partly cloudy skies with easterly winds of 5–15 mph and dew points remaining in the upper 70s to low 80s. These factors limit radiational cooling, keeping the minimum temperature from dropping below the historical August average of roughly 79–82 °F.
The tight clustering around the 78–81 °F outcomes (combined ~65 % market-implied probability) reflects model agreement on modest overnight mixing and continued moisture advection from the Atlantic. Brief thunderstorm activity possible in the evening could produce localized cooling of a degree or two, but broad subsidence and high heat content in surrounding waters are expected to prevent deeper drops. Lower-probability outcomes below 77 °F would require an unexpected influx of drier air or stronger winds, while readings above 83 °F would need sustained cloud cover or additional moisture preventing any nocturnal dip. Updated NWS forecast discussions and morning model runs on August 30 will provide the final data points before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,120End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent warm, humid air mass and typical late-summer conditions in South Florida are anchoring trader expectations for Miami’s overnight low on August 30 near the upper 70s to low 80s.** Official National Weather Service and private model guidance issued August 29 consistently project lows of 79–83 °F under partly cloudy skies with easterly winds of 5–15 mph and dew points remaining in the upper 70s to low 80s. These factors limit radiational cooling, keeping the minimum temperature from dropping below the historical August average of roughly 79–82 °F.
The tight clustering around the 78–81 °F outcomes (combined ~65 % market-implied probability) reflects model agreement on modest overnight mixing and continued moisture advection from the Atlantic. Brief thunderstorm activity possible in the evening could produce localized cooling of a degree or two, but broad subsidence and high heat content in surrounding waters are expected to prevent deeper drops. Lower-probability outcomes below 77 °F would require an unexpected influx of drier air or stronger winds, while readings above 83 °F would need sustained cloud cover or additional moisture preventing any nocturnal dip. Updated NWS forecast discussions and morning model runs on August 30 will provide the final data points before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmia
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,120End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kmiaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent warm, humid air mass and typical late-summer conditions in South Florida are anchoring trader expectations for Miami’s overnight low on August 30 near the upper 70s to low 80s.** Official National Weather Service and private model guidance issued August 29 consistently project lows of 79–83 °F under partly cloudy skies with easterly winds of 5–15 mph and dew points remaining in the upper 70s to low 80s. These factors limit radiational cooling, keeping the minimum temperature from dropping below the historical August average of roughly 79–82 °F. The tight clustering around the 78–81 °F outcomes (combined ~65 % market-implied probability) reflects model agreement on modest overnight mixing and continued moisture advection from the Atlantic. Brief thunderstorm activity possible in the evening could produce localized cooling of a degree or two, but broad subsidence and high heat content in surrounding waters are expected to prevent deeper drops. Lower-probability outcomes below 77 °F would require an unexpected influx of drier air or stronger winds, while readings above 83 °F would need sustained cloud cover or additional moisture preventing any nocturnal dip. Updated NWS forecast discussions and morning model runs on August 30 will provide the final data points before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions