**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature for Cape Town on August 29 likely between 11–14°C, driven by a shift to southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air and increased cloud cover ahead of a weak front.** Current conditions on August 27 remain mild with northerly flow, but southerly winds strengthening by the weekend will limit daytime warming while moderating nighttime radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies and possible light rain. Multiple sources (Met Office, Yr.no, PredictWind) point to overnight lows near 11–13°C, with some spread from model differences in frontal timing and wind mixing. This keeps 12°C and 13°C as the highest-implied-probability outcomes, while the elevated odds on 17°C or higher reflect residual uncertainty if the cool air arrives later or is weaker than expected. Historical August minima average around 8–10°C, so the current setup represents milder-than-average conditions tied to the specific synoptic pattern. Traders are weighting the narrow model consensus around 11–13°C, with upcoming runs from ECMWF and GFS likely to refine the exact threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on August 29?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 29?
17°C or higher 53%
7°C or below 38%
12°C 29%
13°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
7°C or below
38%
8°C
18%
9°C
11%
10°C
25%
11°C
25%
12°C
29%
13°C
27%
14°C
25%
15°C
25%
16°C
2%
17°C or higher
53%
17°C or higher 53%
7°C or below 38%
12°C 29%
13°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
7°C or below
$5 Vol.
38%
8°C
$75 Vol.
18%
9°C
$0 Vol.
11%
10°C
$0 Vol.
25%
11°C
$0 Vol.
25%
12°C
$0 Vol.
29%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
25%
15°C
$0 Vol.
25%
16°C
$5 Vol.
2%
17°C or higher
$5 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature for Cape Town on August 29 likely between 11–14°C, driven by a shift to southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air and increased cloud cover ahead of a weak front.**
Current conditions on August 27 remain mild with northerly flow, but southerly winds strengthening by the weekend will limit daytime warming while moderating nighttime radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies and possible light rain. Multiple sources (Met Office, Yr.no, PredictWind) point to overnight lows near 11–13°C, with some spread from model differences in frontal timing and wind mixing.
This keeps 12°C and 13°C as the highest-implied-probability outcomes, while the elevated odds on 17°C or higher reflect residual uncertainty if the cool air arrives later or is weaker than expected. Historical August minima average around 8–10°C, so the current setup represents milder-than-average conditions tied to the specific synoptic pattern. Traders are weighting the narrow model consensus around 11–13°C, with upcoming runs from ECMWF and GFS likely to refine the exact threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$90End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature for Cape Town on August 29 likely between 11–14°C, driven by a shift to southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air and increased cloud cover ahead of a weak front.**
Current conditions on August 27 remain mild with northerly flow, but southerly winds strengthening by the weekend will limit daytime warming while moderating nighttime radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies and possible light rain. Multiple sources (Met Office, Yr.no, PredictWind) point to overnight lows near 11–13°C, with some spread from model differences in frontal timing and wind mixing.
This keeps 12°C and 13°C as the highest-implied-probability outcomes, while the elevated odds on 17°C or higher reflect residual uncertainty if the cool air arrives later or is weaker than expected. Historical August minima average around 8–10°C, so the current setup represents milder-than-average conditions tied to the specific synoptic pattern. Traders are weighting the narrow model consensus around 11–13°C, with upcoming runs from ECMWF and GFS likely to refine the exact threshold before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$90End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models indicate a minimum temperature for Cape Town on August 29 likely between 11–14°C, driven by a shift to southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air and increased cloud cover ahead of a weak front.** Current conditions on August 27 remain mild with northerly flow, but southerly winds strengthening by the weekend will limit daytime warming while moderating nighttime radiative cooling under mostly cloudy skies and possible light rain. Multiple sources (Met Office, Yr.no, PredictWind) point to overnight lows near 11–13°C, with some spread from model differences in frontal timing and wind mixing. This keeps 12°C and 13°C as the highest-implied-probability outcomes, while the elevated odds on 17°C or higher reflect residual uncertainty if the cool air arrives later or is weaker than expected. Historical August minima average around 8–10°C, so the current setup represents milder-than-average conditions tied to the specific synoptic pattern. Traders are weighting the narrow model consensus around 11–13°C, with upcoming runs from ECMWF and GFS likely to refine the exact threshold before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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