Recent Tokyo and national core-core CPI readings, which exclude fresh food and energy, have edged up to around 2.0% year-over-year in August 2026, reflecting broadening pass-through from wage gains, yen depreciation, and Middle East-related energy costs, though still tempered by government subsidies. Trader consensus pricing 2.0-2.4% as the leading outcome for the 2026 full-year figure aligns with Bank of Japan projections of underlying inflation gradually approaching or exceeding 2%, supported by sustained labor market tightness and corporate price-setting behavior. The ≤1.9% bucket retains notable implied probability amid base effects and policy measures, while probabilities above 2.5% remain minimal. The September 17-18 FOMC-equivalent BOJ policy meeting represents a key near-term catalyst that could influence rate expectations and inflation trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJapan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
Japan Core-Core CPI YoY in 2026
2.0-2.4% 63%
≤1.9% 39%
2.5-2.9% <1%
3.0-3.4% <1%
$43,056 Vol.
$43,056 Vol.
Feb 12, 2027
≤1.9%
39%
2.0-2.4%
63%
2.5-2.9%
1%
3.0-3.4%
<1%
3.5-3.9%
<1%
4.0%+
<1%
2.0-2.4% 63%
≤1.9% 39%
2.5-2.9% <1%
3.0-3.4% <1%
$43,056 Vol.
$43,056 Vol.
Feb 12, 2027
≤1.9%
$12,369 Vol.
39%
2.0-2.4%
$17,082 Vol.
63%
2.5-2.9%
$9,418 Vol.
1%
3.0-3.4%
$1,312 Vol.
<1%
3.5-3.9%
$1,326 Vol.
<1%
4.0%+
$1,548 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent Tokyo and national core-core CPI readings, which exclude fresh food and energy, have edged up to around 2.0% year-over-year in August 2026, reflecting broadening pass-through from wage gains, yen depreciation, and Middle East-related energy costs, though still tempered by government subsidies. Trader consensus pricing 2.0-2.4% as the leading outcome for the 2026 full-year figure aligns with Bank of Japan projections of underlying inflation gradually approaching or exceeding 2%, supported by sustained labor market tightness and corporate price-setting behavior. The ≤1.9% bucket retains notable implied probability amid base effects and policy measures, while probabilities above 2.5% remain minimal. The September 17-18 FOMC-equivalent BOJ policy meeting represents a key near-term catalyst that could influence rate expectations and inflation trajectories.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Market Opened: Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$43,056End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent Tokyo and national core-core CPI readings, which exclude fresh food and energy, have edged up to around 2.0% year-over-year in August 2026, reflecting broadening pass-through from wage gains, yen depreciation, and Middle East-related energy costs, though still tempered by government subsidies. Trader consensus pricing 2.0-2.4% as the leading outcome for the 2026 full-year figure aligns with Bank of Japan projections of underlying inflation gradually approaching or exceeding 2%, supported by sustained labor market tightness and corporate price-setting behavior. The ≤1.9% bucket retains notable implied probability amid base effects and policy measures, while probabilities above 2.5% remain minimal. The September 17-18 FOMC-equivalent BOJ policy meeting represents a key near-term catalyst that could influence rate expectations and inflation trajectories.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Volume
$43,056End Date
Feb 12, 2027Market Opened
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Tokyo and national core-core CPI readings, which exclude fresh food and energy, have edged up to around 2.0% year-over-year in August 2026, reflecting broadening pass-through from wage gains, yen depreciation, and Middle East-related energy costs, though still tempered by government subsidies. Trader consensus pricing 2.0-2.4% as the leading outcome for the 2026 full-year figure aligns with Bank of Japan projections of underlying inflation gradually approaching or exceeding 2%, supported by sustained labor market tightness and corporate price-setting behavior. The ≤1.9% bucket retains notable implied probability amid base effects and policy measures, while probabilities above 2.5% remain minimal. The September 17-18 FOMC-equivalent BOJ policy meeting represents a key near-term catalyst that could influence rate expectations and inflation trajectories.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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