The Bank of Korea’s August 27 decision to hike the base rate 25 basis points to 3.00%—its second consecutive increase—has anchored trader expectations for an October pause, reflected in the 75.5% implied probability of no change. Strong semiconductor-driven growth prompted the BOK to lift its 2026 GDP forecast sharply to 3.3%, while core inflation projections rose to 2.5% and headline inflation remains above the 2% target amid cost pressures and robust domestic demand. Governor Shin Hyun-song signaled that policymakers will assess the impact of the front-loaded tightening, alongside incoming Q2 nominal GDP and August-September inflation data, before considering further moves, consistent with the updated dot plot showing a median endpoint near 3.25% over six months. Markets assign only modest odds to additional hikes this year, underscoring the consensus that the recent actions warrant a data-dependent hold at the next meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo Change 68%
25 bps hike 19%
50+ bps hike 14%
25 bps cut 6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 21, 2026
50+ bps cut
3%
25 bps cut
6%
No Change
75%
25 bps hike
19%
50+ bps hike
14%
No Change 68%
25 bps hike 19%
50+ bps hike 14%
25 bps cut 6%
NEW
NEW
Oct 21, 2026
50+ bps cut
$0 Vol.
3%
25 bps cut
$140 Vol.
6%
No Change
$225 Vol.
75%
25 bps hike
$0 Vol.
19%
50+ bps hike
$0 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.The Bank of Korea’s August 27 decision to hike the base rate 25 basis points to 3.00%—its second consecutive increase—has anchored trader expectations for an October pause, reflected in the 75.5% implied probability of no change. Strong semiconductor-driven growth prompted the BOK to lift its 2026 GDP forecast sharply to 3.3%, while core inflation projections rose to 2.5% and headline inflation remains above the 2% target amid cost pressures and robust domestic demand. Governor Shin Hyun-song signaled that policymakers will assess the impact of the front-loaded tightening, alongside incoming Q2 nominal GDP and August-September inflation data, before considering further moves, consistent with the updated dot plot showing a median endpoint near 3.25% over six months. Markets assign only modest odds to additional hikes this year, underscoring the consensus that the recent actions warrant a data-dependent hold at the next meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 7:06 PM ET
Volume
$365End Date
Oct 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.The Bank of Korea’s August 27 decision to hike the base rate 25 basis points to 3.00%—its second consecutive increase—has anchored trader expectations for an October pause, reflected in the 75.5% implied probability of no change. Strong semiconductor-driven growth prompted the BOK to lift its 2026 GDP forecast sharply to 3.3%, while core inflation projections rose to 2.5% and headline inflation remains above the 2% target amid cost pressures and robust domestic demand. Governor Shin Hyun-song signaled that policymakers will assess the impact of the front-loaded tightening, alongside incoming Q2 nominal GDP and August-September inflation data, before considering further moves, consistent with the updated dot plot showing a median endpoint near 3.25% over six months. Markets assign only modest odds to additional hikes this year, underscoring the consensus that the recent actions warrant a data-dependent hold at the next meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the base rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 22, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Korea calendar (https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Korea's Monetary Policy Board resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
Volume
$365End Date
Oct 22, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 7:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Korea’s August 27 decision to hike the base rate 25 basis points to 3.00%—its second consecutive increase—has anchored trader expectations for an October pause, reflected in the 75.5% implied probability of no change. Strong semiconductor-driven growth prompted the BOK to lift its 2026 GDP forecast sharply to 3.3%, while core inflation projections rose to 2.5% and headline inflation remains above the 2% target amid cost pressures and robust domestic demand. Governor Shin Hyun-song signaled that policymakers will assess the impact of the front-loaded tightening, alongside incoming Q2 nominal GDP and August-September inflation data, before considering further moves, consistent with the updated dot plot showing a median endpoint near 3.25% over six months. Markets assign only modest odds to additional hikes this year, underscoring the consensus that the recent actions warrant a data-dependent hold at the next meeting.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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